Iran has tried to capture the British tanker in retaliation for the arrest of the Iranian vessel in Gibraltar. US harvested coalition against Tehran. What can cause tanker war in the Persian Gulf and why Trump's strategy is doomed to failure?
The Gulf region is hot again. Begun in May incidents of attack oil ships have grown into a full-fledged "tanker war".
another, but certainly not the last it became a puzzle incident in the Strait of Hormuz. In a key artery in the region, through which 1/5 World Oil Trade, clashed Iranian Navy and the British tanker British Heritage. Iranians caught a merchant ship, when it was near the island of Abu Musa, controlled by Iran, but contested the UAE.
Not a bit of it
Five boats Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (KSIR), that the United States made the list of terrorist organizations, They demanded from the British tanker to change course and stay in the territorial waters of Iran. But, to the dismay of the Persian, British Heritage was accompanied by a frigate of the Royal British Navy HMS Montrose. Iranian boats quickly "come to life", when the enemy ship navol them guns. IRGC had to retreat.
When the military put down their arms, the case took diplomats. Foreign Office accused Iran in violation of international law.
We are concerned by this action and continue to urge the Iranian authorities to de-escalate the situation in the region,
- said the Foreign Minister of the United Kingdom.
Islamic Republic of Iran (MACRO) his participation in the incident rejected. IRGC said, that "in the past 24 hour there was not a single case of "foreign vessels, including the British. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif called the charges baseless London.
The confrontation between Britain and Iran - the result of the arrest of the Iranian oil-tanker Grace 1 in Gibraltar. The British seized the ship under the pretext of violation of EU sanctions. presumably, Grace 1 It delivers oil from Iran to Syria.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani warned, that will not leave unanswered aggression London.
On the tip of the blade
Chronology of events in the Gulf region for the last two months has shown, that the opposing sides have embarked on a very dangerous path. Events are developing the same pattern: the attack on the ship - the prosecution - the negation of the attack - the absence of negotiations.
Judge for yourself. In mid-May,, when off the coast of Fujairah (OAE) drones attacked four vessels, including two Saudi tanker, USA, Emirates and Saudi Arabia immediately accused Iran. After a month in the nearby Gulf of Oman undermined tankers Kokuka Courageous and Front Altair. And again, And with feykovye "video evidence", aggressor named Tehran.
20 June Iranians shot down a US drone RQ-4 Global Hawk. Iran considered, that the drone violated Iranian airspace, Centcom but denied this. Two weeks later, the British arrested an Iranian tanker and charged with illegal transportation of oil to Syria.
Irreconcilable positions of the parties in advance. Iran considers itself the victim of a conspiracy to drive the Tehran full economic blockade. The US and its allies in the Persian Gulf is entirely sure, that Iran specifically inhibits the freedom of navigation.
Who is right?
the reader, perhaps, especially interested, who is right in this situation. To answer a question is not easy, because no one can say for sure, who attacks tankers.
Yes, The United States provided a video to swim Iranian boats. But they can not see, that the military is removed from the tanker Kokuka Courageous mine. Secondly, still unclear, that in the airspace of Iran did downed drone. Or maybe, is he undermining the Saudi and other tankers, to put the blame on Tehran?
Can not be discounted and the version, that IRI also capable of sharp steps. Remember, how many times, Tehran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz.
Threats against foreign vessels are understandable, if consider, that the US is trying to reduce Iranian oil exports to "zero barrels a day". US sanctions are not supported by Europe, but the EU does not risk to bypass and also stopped buying from Iran's "black gold".
"A cornered animal"
Recall: in the documentary "Putin" the Russian president said, it is better to never let anyone cornering. The famous presenter of CNN Fareed Zakaria says today's aggravation at the island of Abu Musa Putin.
Trump Administration of Iran clamped in a vise, it made it impossible to sell Iranian oil in the world market. Iranian cornered,
- said the journalist.
Iran - a country powerful, almost a regional leader. By and large,, It is now meaningless, without clear evidence, talk about, who is right, who is guilty.
Must be judged in context. And the context is that. A year ago, Trump came out of the "nuclear deal", imposed sanctions against Iran and the EU ordered not to buy his oil. Europe listens. Iran waiting, I am hoping to create a bypass mechanism INSTEX, but it did not work. Frustrated Hassan Rouhani can not be justified before conservative Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. And now Iran has itself started to break the "nuclear deal" and exceed the permitted level of uranium enrichment.
Vladimir Putin and Chinese counterparts are not enthusiastic about the behavior of the Iranians, but explained, that the root cause of the festering conflict was US actions.
Trigger
Second question, which all interested: "And what will happen next? Is war?»
The main problem of the war flares up, as well as conflicts in Ukraine, in Yemen and in Syria, - the absence of negotiations. Tramp not razgovarivaet with Rouhani, although from time to time express a wish. I would like to - would have already talked, both Kim Jong Ynom and Vladimir Putin. Instead of US diplomacy rush threats airstrikes, collect anti-Iranian coalition and carry out anti-Iranian conference.
"Trump is trying to increase pressure, but it is not clear, for what purpose. Conversation? But he did not offer any diplomatic solution. All this may lead to erroneous estimates with dangerous consequences,"- commented Fareed Zakaria.
The military correspondent of "Bi-bi-si" Jonathan Marcus says: the latest incident showed, that the tensions in the Persian Gulf can escalate. Violation of Iran's "nuclear deal" and an attempt to stop the British ship will accelerate the creation of Trump alliance with the Union Navy and US will continue to communicate with the EU position.
"It (aggravation - ca.. Constantinople) inevitably play into the hands of the president of Trump, as the United Kingdom and its key European partners are struggling to keep nuclear agreement,"- says Marcus.
Tactics and strategy Swap
Errors in calculations, which warns Zakaria, possible in any conflict. Turkey downed a Russian Su-24 - a clear proof, Erdogan underestimated the Russian reaction. But when it comes to Washington's deep, "Tanker war" for Trump - the purpose of the tactical, rather than strategic.
Administration Trump interested in two things. At first, that Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons and once it did not apply against Israel and the Saudis. Secondly, not to strengthen Iran in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq, that is to become a hegemon in the Middle East. The dilemma is, that these are two incompatible goals. US imposes sanctions, to deprive Iran of money to fund its proxies in Syria, Lebanon, etc.. d. But it is a violation of the joint comprehensive action plan (SVPD) Iran responds to nuclear weapons development. If Trump bets to prevent Iran getting bomb, he will have to return to the track "nuclear deal". But the latter does not forbid Iran to expand influence in the region.
Temporary aggravation of the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz to bid up oil prices, which gives the Russian budget a certain profit. But in strategic terms, Russia is not interested in waging the war on its southern borders. Iran - is not only an ally of Moscow in Syria, but also one of the pillars of stability in the Middle East. The crisis in Iran will automatically spill over to the South Caucasus - a zone of Russian interests. This explains the successful attempt to dissuade Putin at the G20 Trump on new adventures in the Gulf.
Kamran Gasanov
