After reading many articles about “disaster”, which awaits Russia, if tomorrow suddenly women don't start giving birth, I want to bring down the intensity of passions and howls a little “Russia is dying”, a few arguments:
1. to understand, to whom to direct righteous anger, I suggest that you first study the chart:
from my article How many people would there be in Russia without repealing Khrushchev's Stalinist ban on abortion?
Now guys, direct your righteous anger towards N. Khrushchev, which, in a fit of canceling everything and everything done by J.V. Stalin, canceled in 1957 year Stalin's ban on abortion. When Stalin came to full power in 1936 year, he is like a statesman, naturally canceled the revolutionary Masonic abortion permit (1920 of the year).
What prompted Khrushchev to take such a step besides hatred of Stalin? Unknown. For a country that has just lost 20 million people in the Great Patriotic War?
But at “our sworn partners” there was a ban on abortion at the time.
for example; in France, the ban on abortion was lifted in 1975 city, in the USA in 1973 year, in West Germany (FRG) at 1976 year, abortion is still prohibited in Finland and Poland.
That is, there was no logical reason for Khrushchev's voluntaristic decision..
But “unborn aborted” generation avenged through 20 years – already with 1976 years before the RSFSR faced the problem of lack of workers – endless announcements everywhere ‘required, required, required” and falling GDP growth rates, every year the problem of labor shortage began to increase, by the 1982 year Russia “I missed” 100-120 million people. These “dead Souls” besides, they have not given birth to their children. The crisis was a foregone conclusion.
The most interesting, what's the story with “aborted” generation repeated in the West, exactly through 20 years after the permission of abortion, the United States covered the crisis, and if at this moment the Soviet Union did not collapse, it is not yet known how it would end.
2. Now pitying about the population in Russia to 1990 year in Rheine 300-320 million people, let's move on to a new trend that has covered almost the entire civilized world in 21 century- to a drop in women's fertility.
The reasons for the decline in births among women around the world are discussed in the article: Demographers: women's education has the greatest impact on fertility
We conducted surveys in 26 countries, asking women, how many children do they want, and regardless of places, they usually answered - two. External forces, who forced to have large families, disappear. And it happens the fastest in developing countries. for example, in the Philippines, fertility declined from 3,7% to 2,7% since 2003 by 2018 year. This is one child in 15 years. (ca.. Georg Karr – that is for 15 years, the number of children among women decreased by 1 child)
general trend – as the education level of women rises, the number of births falls. What caused this?
3. Now I will offer my point of view: As women become more educated, WOMEN'S RESPONSIBILITY TO THEIR CHILDREN INCREASES.
If earlier it was enough for an uneducated woman to give birth and feed a child, then an educated woman is already more responsible towards her children:
– she thinks in what living conditions her future children will grow up, if the family is in cramped conditions – most likely the woman will not give birth;
– she thinks how to teach her child, this and her time, and additional material costs. Now parents provide children until they graduate from high school.
– she thinks, will she have time to give love, attention and time for a new baby, if the family already has one child or two children.
And weighing everything “for” and “Against” really come to the conclusion, that a responsible educated woman wants no more than two or three children.
4. Another proof of the increased responsibility of women for offspring – attitudes of women towards pregnancy planning, which reflects well the coefficient:
As seen, women in Russia want less and less “unplanned” children.
5, So that, everything is so deplorable? Well, first you need to stop whining! In my article, The real goal of the government's version of the pension reform – an increase in the economically active population, I also analyze the number of the economically active population (EAN – population with 20 years before 60 years), diagram:
Everyone can see perfectly, what EAN to 2040 year should have decreased to indicators 1990 of the year. But this is without taking into account the implementation of the pension reform. (taking into account the reform, the decline is going at a significantly slow pace – see that article).
That is to 2040 year, our labor situation will not be worse than in 1990 year – DO I NEED TO SCREAM CARAUL?
6. When assessing the size of the population of Russia, the following facts should also be taken into account – Russia is “vacuum cleaner” for young people from all over the former USSR.
And the population of Russia in the coming years will regularly grow by migrants from Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Moldova, etc.. And this is the human potential of future citizens of Russia in the amount of 20 to 30 million people. As the economic situation in these countries worsens, this potential will settle in Russia.
In this way, the problem in Russia in the near future will not be an increase in the birth rate, but in a headache – what to do with young people from neighboring countries, eager to obtain Russian citizenship.
7. Returning to the point 3 articles on increasing the responsibility of modern women to children – women do not want to torment their children with constrained household circumstances – consciousness has changed. If earlier in the USSR, every citizen had 1960 – 8 sq.m., at 1970 year – 10,8 m, 1985 year – 16,9 m, now more 25 m. And now every year more than 80 million square meters per year. In this way, don't be discouraged – there will be an increase in living space – women will give birth.
8. When assessing the demographic situation in Russia, you also need to understand, that the population is falling not only here, but even faster with our competitors – to 2050 the year will be a decrease in population in both the EU and Japan, and in China. There will be population growth only in India – but it will only increase India's many problems – no one knows what to do with a bunch of half-starved uneducated people there. But against the background of all these competitors, the situation in Russia looks very much even nothing.
9. The motto of today's Russia should be “Not by number – but skill!”. It is not for nothing that today one of the most discussed topics at the AS is the problem of education in Russia..
