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Armenia: the southern gate of the CIS and EAEC or barrier?

Investments and false investors

In late June, the Investigative Committee confirmed Armenia, in CJSC "South Caucasus Railway" ("Daughter" of JSC "Russian Railways", Concessionaire Armenian railways 2008 city) test was conducted "to determine the effectiveness of investments, the real volume of financial irregularities, revealed new violations, indicted ". The first of such statements were in the autumn of 2018.

Armenia: the southern gate of the CIS and EAEC or barrier?

The total amount of claims reaches yet 60 million. dollars; the seriousness of the situation manifested itself in, that in late June, Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan did not meet in Yerevan vice-president of Russian Railways Alexander Misharin, instructing meeting his deputies.

Why is this unwinds at least a working dispute?

It is not excluded, that notwithstanding that the financial claims - a kind way of putting pressure on SCR, that we were finally implemented projects, strategic importance to Armenia, Russia, all EAEC.

And to be precise, Armenia strengthened the opposition of the investment policy of the Russian business, particularly in energy and transport infrastructure. Many local officials and experts on a regular basis say, guests from Russia are interested primarily in acquiring local assets and did not want to "splurge" on the implementation of expensive projects, priority for this country.

The Russian state is due to a number of interrelated reasons can not properly influence the large Russian business. And his, looks like, urgent care little inside- and the external economic interests of the country, where he "cleaned up" to his concession not only railways, but almost all other industries.

And unfortunately, appropriate mood in the political and social environment in Armenia is increasingly manifested with the victory there the "color revolution" in the fall 2017 of the year. She is, as is known, He brought in leaders of the country's informal Nikol Pashinyan. Good, that he had the patience to not go for a direct break with Russia, as well as out of the integration structures completely different plan - the CIS and EAEC.

Nevertheless, accession "Nicholas I", as the prime minister called Pashinyan not only his opponents, when all hands, is fraught with obvious political costs in bilateral relations. But this, If Moscow can not or dare not affect duly Russian business policy in the transport and energy sectors in Armenia.

By precepts F. D. Roosevelt

A great president of the United States raised the ruins of the crisis and led the US to world leaders, betting on housing construction and infrastructure development. Russia, it seemed, I am doing something similar in Armenia, when almost all the railways of the country were in the Russian concession. Nevertheless, for many decades - from the Soviet era - a small country in the South Caucasus and has not a single railway network.

Armenia: the southern gate of the CIS and EAEC or barrier?

This question was posed by the communist government of the republic since the early 30-ies of the last century. AT 1952 , the Union Council of Ministers finally approved the corresponding draft, but in the end 1953 , he was not postponed as a priority. It is not excluded, that this was due to the death of Stalin and the massacre of Beria - after they Transcaucasia, by all accounts quite a long time, It turned out in the paddock.

But, it seems, nothing has changed to this day. Meanwhile, the project involved including the creation of the railway along the shortest route Leninakan (Gyumri) - Vale - Batumi port, that is not the current circuitous route through Tbilisi ("Hook" here - to 200 km).

Armenia: the southern gate of the CIS and EAEC or barrier?

Armenia: the southern gate of the CIS and EAEC or barrier?

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Not so long ago Armenia's accession to the EAEC returned this question on the agenda in connection with the need to add a new route in the messages of this country with Russia and Belarus. Besides, Iran's rapprochement with the EAEC reanimated the Iranian-Soviet project even early 70s: through the creation of railway corridor Batumi Armenia - Northwest Iran (Merend - Tabriz). it, remark, the shortest rail route to Iran and in general to the Middle East from the Soviet Union - now from the ex-USSR, including from Russia, using a Trans-Black Sea ferry from Batumi, who also once planned.

But this still need to dock the steel backbone of South and Central Armenia. But here, just discussions, interdepartmental correspondence between Moscow and Yerevan.

Meanwhile, the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict has led to the blockade of the parallel rail transit route Russia - Iran via Azerbaijan Julfa, There is a 1908 of the year. Since Julfa, recall, It is located in the Nakhichevan autonomous Azerbaijan, and this very autonomy - is geographically located "inside" of Armenia *.

That is why it is quite obvious, the line Armenia - Iran becomes strategically important for Yerevan to Tehran, for Moscow. But, as we noted, practical advancement here is not so far. And the integrated project is not contained in the priority plans for SCR.

Armenia: the southern gate of the CIS and EAEC or barrier?

At present, the SCR is as follows

A similar situation now with a long-standing project of the Eurasian gas pipeline Iran - Armenia - Georgian ports of Batumi / Anaklia, having, by the way, branch in Russia - through Georgia, which is somewhat complicates matters. Besides, maybe the reason is that, that "Gazprom Armenia" under various pretexts, regularly changing the timing of this project. Yet again, contrary to the position of Tehran and Yerevan, where the project is considered a priority.

Meanwhile, the Armenian side on the same projects will appeal not only to the West, but also to China. Confirmation of this - took place recently in Yerevan bilateral forum "Foreign Policy and China's economy: 70 years China '. Organized by the Council for Political and Strategic Studies “China - Eurasia” under the State Council jointly with the Armenian State University of Economics. According to the "Xinhua" agency, Discussion at the forum were devoted to "the purposes and characteristics of the initiative “Belt and path”, the prospects for the participation in it of Armenia, Armenian transport destination steel pipe “North South” and China's participation in its construction.

The possible participation of China in the implementation of priority projects in Armenia and discussed during the recent visit to China, the government of the Armenian delegation. Specific decision has been taken, but the discussion will be continued.

Transit is not yet visible

What exactly is it? First of all, the creation of a single railway network in Armenia, leaving Iran (through the line of "North - South": Fioletovo - Zangezur - Kapan - Megri - Merenda). And on the Iran - Armenia (150 km) with the prospect, the Iranian project, its extension in Georgia and creation on its coast in the ports of Batumi and Anaklia - export capacities for liquefying or compressing gas.

All of these projects, repeat, starodavnye. So, said the railway project was nominated by the leadership of the Armenian SSR is still in the mid-1940s and then "repeated" five times. And he repeated with the continued support from Tehran, as it is happening today. But Moscow also has always considered his "untimely".

Today is already becoming clear, that this happened due to a far greater influence of the Azerbaijani leadership in Moscow, interested in preserving the "monopoly" of Azerbaijan in rail transport between the USSR and Iran.

SCR believes the project is economically ill-founded, and "Gazprom Armenia" exactly describes the project and increase the capacity of the gas pipeline Iran - Armenia and its extension to Georgia. probably, because, that such a scenario will reduce the 100 percent Armenia's dependence on Russian gas and by its only possible transit - through Georgia.

Meanwhile, Interpretations Minister of hi-tech industry of Armenia Hakob Arshakyan, "Already have a clear agreement, that we are going to conclude an agreement with China for rail transport. A draft agreement ready ". And with a possible connection to the said project line in Iran (Myegri row), for, It clarifies A. Arshakyan, "I discussed, that our program was seen not only as a project, connecting the north and south of Armenia. But also as connecting the Persian Gulf and the Black Sea countries. Past serious discussion, Chinese side expressed its readiness to consider the "North-South" part of the "One Belt - one way" ".

Armenia: the southern gate of the CIS and EAEC or barrier?

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At the same time that, that the majority of Yerevan independence in relations with Iran is really in demand, Just the other day Armenian ambassador to Iran Artashes Tumanyan:

"For the last 28 years the largest volume of trade between the two countries has been in the field of energy and gas ("Exchange" with 2007 g. electricity Armenia gas pipeline Iranian, from which it is produced by the electric power supplied to Iran. - Note. aut.). No doubt, that the two countries might cooperate more, Kojima neglected, and new solutions are required in this regard ".

Armenia: the southern gate of the CIS and EAEC or barrier?

If Moscow will not go for the project, to EC and US, interested in larger presence in Armenia and in the competition of the Russian and Iranian gas, may well “take” for this project. Here at once an analogy with the decisive participation of the Americans and Europeans in the creation in the mid-1990s - early 2000s, oil pipelines, Azerbaijan - Georgia - Turkey (Baku - Tbilisi - Ceyhan) Azerbaijan - Georgia (Baku - Tbilisi - Poti / Supsa).

This "complicity" will, in its turn, certainly “coincide” the tightening of sanctions and all other US measures, directed against any new gas export projects in Russia. Moreover, the promising Iran-Armenia-Georgia gas pipeline is also a kind of thread for the long-term mitigation of the American-Iranian tension.

As a conclusion, note, that new solutions are becoming increasingly relevant in the updated Russian-Armenian relations. A simple increase in mutual trade turnover within the EAEC, here, looks like, It is not enough ...

* So "bizarre" the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia were established RSFSR leadership on Turkey's insistence in 1921-23 years: it was established "primary" ground for prospective Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Each of these conflicts, as if Armenia is not proud of his victory in the struggle for Karabakh, mainly contributes only to the promotion of Pan-Turkism by Ankara in this region.

Instead of an afterword

A fresh confirmation of the opposition sentiments in Armenia towards Russian business was the fact, that employees of a large copper plant in the north-Armenian town of Alaverdi, owned Russian “Vallex Group”, recently blocked the railway Armenia - Georgia. In view of the reduction in production, layoffs and salary growth in debt. While this excess is not settled.

but it is characteristic, that almost at the same time (2-3 July) talks were held in Tehran of Iranian President X. Rouhani with Deputy Prime Minister of Armenia M. Григоряном. Both sides, according to official reports, reaffirmed their mutual interest in the construction of the Armenia-Iran railway, developing the Iranian-Armenian transit corridor and increasing the supply of Iranian gas to Armenia.

According to M. Григоряна, It was “some agreements on energy reached, transport, industry, trade, Environment and Tourism, the results of which are presented in the Memorandum of Understanding, signed after the talks the parties”.

Alex Podymov, Alex Chichkin

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