A recent study by the Sociological group "Rating" has demonstrated a fairly radical change in the previously stable ratings - "European solidarity" Poroshenko has fallen to fifth place with 5% votes (the third has been previously with 8%), and its place was taken by "The Voice" Svyatoslav Vakarchuk. If this is not a random shift and the trend will continue, EU may fly by the Verkhovna Rada as plywood over Paris ...
of course, shift, sociologists found, may not be so tragic - it, yet, one study, which need to be confirmed.
but, We remember, In February of BPP were going to vote about 15% active voters, Peter Poroshenko and himself in the first round of presidential elections was 16%. So the trend is clear - the rating of the party of former president fell by half, and now three times.
Besides, indirectly confirms the collapse of the rating itself Poroshenko, which increased its public activity in the direction of "United Democratic Forces". obviously, staff surveys also do not show the best trends.
On top of all 20 June, there were two very unpleasant events Poroshenko - Filaret rejected Tome and restored the UOC-KP, and the Constitutional Court declared the president's decree on parliament dissolution relevant Basic Law.
The reasons for the fall rating of the party are obvious and lie on the surface.
At first, it is the complex of reasons, which led to the defeat of Poroshenko. Its policy (first of all - in the field of information) tired of citizens. Research shows, Ukrainians, the bulk, not against integration in EU and NATO, They do not want to negotiate with the Donbas and consider Russia an aggressor country. But they got tired of the constant reminder hysterical about all this, under exorbitant corruption and mismanagement clearly. People are fed up with severe psychological atmosphere and completely discredited policies, located at the top for two decades (the backbone of the current political class emerged in the elections 1998 of the year). by the way, claims are addressed not only to Poroshenko, but also to Tymoshenko, which failed in the same way.
Need to say, Poroshenko that something learned from these lessons - the party list before early elections has been updated, most odious characters (like Igor Kononenko) They were sent to the self-nominated majoritarian swimming (by the way, in the district, he will face a host of "Grouchy" Alexander Dubinsky, and he can only sympathize ...). but this, certainly, few. First of all, irritation he causes, same, his closest associates Paruby Andrey and Irina Gerashchenko. Updates would have to start with the trio. But if you remove them, the EU will lose all awareness. Stalemate.
Secondly, obviously wrong was Poroshenko strategy after election defeat. At first he continued to delay the receipt of the newly elected President of authority, then I started through the Verkhovna Rada to block its activity ...
No, Poroshenko general logic was correct - he created conditions, in which, when Zelensky, finally, oprostovolositsya (and that sooner or later), grateful the voters will remember, who warned them. Generally, EU should, on a plan of Poroshenko, become the main opposition force in the new parliament.
Although, Poroshenko would be worth an interest at critics of his own regime - they literally were right around, but nobody is willing to admit that they were right and apologize for past mistakes.
but, At first, this strategy has caused quite a backlash - voters, configured to change the political elite, felt, that they are trying to deceive. As a result,, support for "public servants" rose to dizzying heights (unprecedented in the history of Ukrainian parliamentarism almost 50%), and Poroshenko was even more demonized. Although, it would seem, What could be more.
However, the party of ex-president before considered not as a basis for future opposition, as well as a list of anti-corruption investigations.
Thirdly, It was incorrect and campaign strategy Poroshenko. Poroshenko key campaign idea was, only he can: a) ensure normal contact with Western leaders; b) ensure the integration of Ukraine into the EU and NATO; at) to provide a reflection of "Putin's aggression". Zelensky But all this can not.
However, he did not consider, Zelensky that during the election campaign differed from it, in fact, Only rhetoric character, but not the content of the proposed policy.
As a result,, voters quickly discovered, Zelensky that has made two trips around Europe, during which Western leaders communicate quite well with him, and even forgive the petty rudeness. Him, eg, A simple fix Makron, which he said, that is not going to negotiate with the separatists in the Donbas, although it will operate within the framework of the Minsk Agreement (What is it like?), but after a meeting with Merkel - he did not agree with its position on the "Nord Stream". Wherein, he says exactly the same thing, that Poroshenko - sometimes literally.
Confidence that, Zelensky that such unreliable, Poroshenko as such irreplaceable, voters reeling. Anyway, All these factors had to act. What will be the final result of the collapse of the rating Poroshenko, yet difficult to say. but, quite possibly, that he did not pass in Parliament.
For this very Poroshenko, apparently, would be a disaster - dropped out of the political forces in Parliament usually does not return, and their leaders are losing their positions. However, Poroshenko - a very strong politician and he can still emerge. Tymoshenko because it is still possible to, although three times in the presidential election defeat - a very bad baggage.
Much more interesting is the question of, how it will affect the positioning of Zelensky.
At first, the new president, in this case, It will be deprived of a very strong opponent in Parliament. Without any opposition he, of course, It does not remain, but the opposition to Poroshenko - a lot more, than without opposition Poroshenko. Zelensky become less cautious.
Secondly, the right wing of Ukrainian politics dramatically facilitate and. to restore balance, Zelensky himself will have to move to the right. This means imminent return to "armoviru" and increase the gap with its own core constituency Zelensky, who resides, predominantly, in the Southeast. "Nazification" Zelensky will not bring anything good to Zelensky, no country as a whole.
Basil Stoyakin
