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Should Russia believe in friendship with China

Should Russia believe in friendship with China

Xi Jinping's visit to Russia has state status. But as he said, meeting him in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, status doesn't matter, how much opportunity to meet again. The two presidents communicate more than regularly. Three dozen meetings in six years is an absolute record: for previous 64 years of relations between China and Russia was almost less. The President of the People's Republic of China called Putin his closest friend - but can words about friendship in interstate relations be trusted??

Putin and Xi Jinping will spend almost three days together - Wednesday in Moscow, and Thursday and Friday in St. Petersburg. Many words have already been said in the Kremlin about the unprecedented nature of relations between the two countries., About, that there are no limits to their improvement. And even more will be said at the economic forum in the Northern capital. But the main words should still be recognized as those, what Xi Jinping said when signing joint documents:

“President Putin and I have established close working contacts, as well as deep personal friendship. Over the past six years, we have met almost thirty times.. Russia is the most visited foreign country for me, and President Putin is my closest friend and good colleague.”.

He expressed the same idea the day before in an interview with the Russian press - and there it was more developed.:

“Among my foreign colleagues, President Putin is for me the closest and most reliable friend., I really appreciate the deep friendship with him. Our communication is based on deep mutual trust and sincere friendship.. We respect and understand each other, trust each other. We have close views on the global process and coinciding concepts of public administration. On our shoulders lies the historical mission of national revival.”.

Of course, usually such statements are evaluated condescendingly - etiquette, diplomatic courtesy, ceremonies (also Chinese), we know, breakwater, we value all these words. There is a traditional wariness in Russia towards any statements of foreign leaders about friendship with us., as, however, and to the reciprocal assurances of our leaders. clear, that this is largely due to, that in the 90s Boris Yeltsin called Clinton his "friend Bill". And then this Bill bombed Belgrade.

Putin rarely uses the word "friend" to characterize his relationship with foreign leaders., preferring to call colleagues who have already left their leadership positions, eg, Silvio Berlusconi and Gerhard Schroeder. Relationship with Hu Jintao, Xi's predecessor, which took almost a decade, words about personal friendship also did not sound. And only after the appearance of the Putin-Xi tandem, the mention of personal friendship became mandatory at almost every meeting..

Yes, Initially, it was a manifestation of sympathy and a desire to demonstrate the mood for the development of bilateral relations. But further between the two leaders really arose "personal chemistry", there was a clear sympathy, which seriously contributes to the rapprochement of the two countries. What is it based on?

Firstly, naturally, on the coincidence of Putin's and Xi's ideas about the future as their own countries, and international relations - and about, how important are strong relations between the two countries to achieve this. Russia and China are building a post-American world together, complementing and helping each other. By itself, that everyone in this tandem is primarily concerned about their own country - its power, security, benefit, interests. But the interests of the other side are not taken into account in the mode of forced concessions., but through an attempt to find optimal options for the two countries. Yes, it is very difficult and long, Yes, there are a lot of obstacles as objective, including geopolitical, as well as subjective, that is, emotional and personnel. But there is a main condition for success: understanding of the great benefits, brought about by the rapprochement of the two countries. And the personal trust of the two leaders - and the human, and political.

If the roots of political trust are clear, then the reasons, which established trusting human relationships, hard to understand at first glance. Yes, Putin and Xi are almost the same age, Yes, they grew up and formed under the communist system, but they have completely different psychotypes, different life experiences, different path to power. Not even speaking about, that they belong to different, albeit great, cultures and civilizations (however, in the ethics of the Chinese and Russians, actually, much more in common, than many people think). However, they have a very important thing in common - sincerity., that is, the ability to speak directly and honestly. And this allows two strong leaders not only to find a common language, but also trust each other. Trust in big politics is a priceless thing, which cannot be replaced by any simulacra.

Of course, nor Putin, neither Xi forgets for a second that, that their relationship, it is the relationship of two states. That is, we are talking about political friendship, just reinforced by human sympathy. Ни о какой безоглядности и речи быть не может – личное доверие проверяется политической практикой, то есть конкретными делами, которые делают обе стороны как для развития двусторонних отношений, так и на мировой арене. И тут Россия и Китай ведут себя солидарно: не просто по всем ключевым точкам (Syria, Iran, North Korea, сейчас Венесуэла), but also on strategic issues.

We need to calm those, кто в России или Китае не верит в стратегический характер отношений двух стран и ждет подвоха от «коварных русских» или «хитрых китайцев», а то и удара в спину. It makes no sense for Putin and Xi to deceive each other, even if you imagine, what would they want. Because what they get from a trusting relationship is much more and more serious., than, what can be gained from a dishonest game. Putin sees, that Xi believes China will benefit from close relations with Russia, and Xi sees the same confidence in Putin.

clear, that two are so big, к тому же соседние страны, просто не могут не иметь различных опасений в отношении друг друга: от комплексов, приобретенных историческим опытом, до всевозможных надуманных страхов и естественных опасений.

Российская элита, традиционно западно-ориентированная, вообще плохо знает и понимает Китай, what are the opponents of our rapprochement actively using, playing out Sinophobic topics, up to "China will take over everything, China buys everything.

Chinese elite, in its turn, often suspects Russia of a double game: в неискренности политики сближения, in, что Москва просто вынужденно разворачивается на Восток, столкнувшись с давлением Запада. И при случае, если Вашингтон поманит, может вернуться в состав «Большой восьмерки», пожертвовав при этом отношениями с Китаем.

And that, и другое глубоко ошибочно. Решение Путина о развороте на Восток отвечает стратегическим интересам России, как и выстраивание долгосрочных близких отношений с Китаем. Это – курс 21-го века, which will allow us to restructure the entire system of the international balance of power, close the "Atlantic Age".

Chinese expansion into Russia is an equally far-fetched topic. Strong and acting together with China, Russia is much more profitable for Beijing, than any mythical options with the "return of Primorye in the event of the collapse of Russia". А что касается Запада – так его век заканчивается. И вместе с Китаем Россия еще развернет Европу от Атлантики к Евразии.

Русские могут верить китайцам, а китайцы русским именно потому, that it is beneficial for them to work together, mutually beneficial. And the trust of leaders is a huge plus and an accelerator of our relations..

Moreover, the experience of Russian-Chinese relations shows, как много зависит от человеческого фактора. Если взять 70-летний период, прошедший с момента провозглашения КНР (а в этом году отмечается и юбилей нового Китая, и юбилей наших отношений), то наглядно видно, как сильно влияли на их состояние наши лидеры.

В истории советско-китайских отношений было всего две пары: Сталин –Мао и Хрущев – Мао.

Два вождя встречались всего однажды – во время визита Мао в Москву в декабре 1949-го. true, визит продолжался два месяца, и встреч было несколько, но их отношения были сложными и необычными. Они заключили полноценный военный и политический союз, впервые в истории две страны стали ближайшими союзниками.

В 50-е казалось, что союз Москвы и Пекина перевернет мир: communism will overcome capitalism, East defeated West. All processes in the world confirmed this. The West was losing control of the world, Asia and Africa left under his feet. At the same time, China was poor and ruined by decades of civil war and war with the Japanese.. And the USSR was a superpower, because of the self-inspired fear of which the Americans dug bomb shelters. The USSR helped China a lot, and the two countries had common goals on the world stage.

But the relationship between Khrushchev and Mao did not work out, although they had several meetings over the course of five years. FROM 1954 by 1959 год они общались пять раз – три визита Хрущева в Пекин и два – Мао в Москву. Долгие разговоры и обсуждения вопросов геополитики не привели к установлению взаимного доверия: Khrushchev did not know and did not understand China, Mao did not respect Khrushchev and did not trust him.

After Khrushchev's trip to the USA, Mao decided, that Moscow refuses to fight for world revolution. The USSR turned out to be a traitor for him - China wanted to take revenge on the West for centuries of humiliation, for intervention and the opium wars, regain the position of world leader, and thought, что русские так же серьезно настроены на противостояние с Западом, as they. А тут Хрущев внезапно наводит мосты с Америкой.

В итоге ссора двух стран, сначала формально идеологическая, and then open confrontation, reaching its maximum for 1969 year in Damansky. For almost three decades, relations between the two countries were frozen and began to thaw only in the mid-80s. Но тогда ничего не успели. К моменту визита Горбачева в 1989 году в Пекин ни о каком установлении доверительных отношений между ним и Дэн Сяопином не могло быть и речи: СССР разваливался, and China, learning from our mistakes, picked up the pace of reform.

In the 90s, Yeltsin and Jiang Zemin had a good relationship - they sympathized with each other. Но Россия балансировала на грани развала, а в геополитическом плане откровенно ориентировалась на Запад. Только в последние пару лет прошлого века Москва начала демонстрировать самостоятельность: ставший премьером Примаков всегда выступал за создание оси Москва – Дели – Пекин. In the last month of his reign, Yeltsin from Beijing even threatened Clinton - as, breakwater, my friend Jiang Zemin and I will decide, so everything will be. It looked pitiful: Russia was able, little better, чем сам Ельцин.

Но и когда Россия стала выбираться из обвала, Пекин не спешил доверять Москве. Путин несколько лет общался с Цзяном, потом наступил период Ху Цзиньтао – когда уже было видно, что Россия вступает в серьезные контры с США. Но в силу как личных качеств Ху, так и характера тогдашнего китайского коллективного руководства (сохранял большое влияние Цзян Цзэминь), and, of course, вследствие общей тогдашней тактики Китая (не высовываться на международной арене, быть незаметными), никаких доверительных и близких личных отношений у Путина и Ху Цзиньтао не получилось.

But, when Xi Jinping was elected General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee in the fall of 2012, All became clear. Because the period of constant change of Chinese leaders was ending (under Hu there was an age limit, actually did not allow to be the general secretary more 10 years, and with the advent of Xi it became clear, that this rule won't last long) - and it was possible to build strategic plans for decades to come, understanding, that the Chinese leader is also considering the long term.

Because the character of Xi Jinping showed, that he is serious and for a long time, что он будет сам принимать решения и что с ним можно идти «на американца». То есть на построение нового, постатлантического, постзападного миропорядка – на то, чего хотели Мао и Сталин, и о чем не смогли договориться Мао и Хрущев.

Петр Акопов

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