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Amateurs put in place. Experts on the possible cancellation of early elections to the Rada

Next week, 4 June, Constitutional Court of Ukraine (KSU) will begin to consider the decree of President Vladimir Zelensky on the dissolution of parliament on compliance with the Basic Law of the country. Experts admit, that judges by their decision can stop the campaign that has started

Amateurs put in place. Experts on the possible cancellation of early elections to the Rada

The parliamentary elections in the fall are mainly insisted by the deputies of the former ruling coalition. Moreover, in words all parties declare their readiness to take part in them. 21 July.

Bidding time

The whole story with KSU and Zelensky’s decree is inextricably linked with those events, that occurred in this court on the eve of and immediately after the election, when a part of the members of the Constitutional Court hastily deposed their leader Stanislav Shevchuk, replacing him with Natalya Shaptala, which ultimately sworn the new president.

Shevchuk, deprived of his post, then directly accused Petro Poroshenko of intriguing against him, who shortly before the end of his presidency "pushed" the appointment of his person as chairman of the KSU.

After, how the KSU received an idea from the Popular Front about the illegality of early elections, in court said, that a carriage and a small cart of pending cases are gathering dust on their shelves, alluding, that they may not reach the presidential decree very soon.

However, it soon became clear, that the pace taken by judges allows them to make their decision on elections within a month, or even a few weeks.

According to political analyst Alexei Yakubin, now there is a tense bargaining between the Constitutional Court on the one hand and political players on the other.

“There is a very interesting nuance - the fact of speed itself. Because the Constitutional Court has the right to take a whole month, to consider, is the direction of deputies so, that it should be considered by the Constitutional Court. And that, that the Constitutional Court so quickly agreed and even indicated, what will start the procedure, for which he even has a month, I think, that this is an indicator of some trading ", - said the expert.

The thing is, that after the coup in KSU, the first violin is now played there by the so-called old-time judges, coming from the southeast, appointed even under Viktor Yanukovych and safely past all post-maidan vicissitudes. Shaptala is their protege.. The main thing for them is to maintain their positions under the new regime.

"Because, let's, if we even talk about the expiration of the current head of the Constitutional Court, then in general, his term ends this fall. That is, I do not exclude, what is such an offer for bidding and to that, and to the other side. Which of them will offer more », - suggests Yakubin.

Poroshenko Dilemma

Recognition by the Constitutional Court of the illegality of early elections is quite possible, however not clear, what position on this issue will Poroshenko eventually take.

One side, political scientist Konstantin Bondarenko believes, ex-president profitable in summer, at the same time, the temptation to cancel Zelensky through the abolition of the dissolution of the Rada, that he does not control the situation, also extremely large.

Anyway, major opponents of the October elections are majoritarian, who will not be able to "quietly" get into the Rada, instead, you’ll have to reconfigure yourself and your campaign for a full-fledged struggle for mandates in the fall.

"In conditions, when parliament is already dispersed, to discredit the Verkhovna Rada is counterproductive. Plus to everything, Zelensky expects quick success ", - said Bondarenko.

At the same time, the Zelensky party “Servant of the People” risks losing its ratings in a few months, therefore, the government will insist on early elections, he stressed.

With the hope of a leader

The Constitutional Court recognizes the early dissolution of the Parliament unconstitutional in one form or another, sure director of the Institute for Society Transformation Oleg Soskin. The only question is, in what form and with what interpretation: fully or partially, whether to allow elections or not.

“It's hard for me to say, how tough or, conversely, vague wording will be applied, but comments will be required. In a situation, which has developed now is right and logical. Since in fact the decree of Vladimir Zelensky does not comply with the provisions, spelled out in the Basic Law ”, - he said.

According to Soskin, Ukraine is not ready for elections 21 July: CEC does not have time to organize local commissions, party structures are not mobilized properly, and in society "there is a huge turmoil".

Zelensky’s decision to launch a lightning attack on the current parliament was erroneous, expert believes.

"I think, that it was a rather amateurish decision of young people, completely versed in politics, not in life. They are essentially scriptwriters, they do not live real life, they come up with it, and then take off. Real life, especially political, very different from invented. Zelensky team hoped, that they can launch a soap opera in the country, but the realities turned out to be completely different ”, - considers Soskin.

He is perplexed, how the president’s party could rush headlong into the election campaign, when she does not have suitable people in the field, their representatives on election commissions, media and organizational resources - nothing, allowing real political action.

“The decree on the dissolution of the Rada was an ill-conceived and unsuccessful blitzkrieg”, - he summed up.

Pavel Kotov, Ksenia Simak, Fedor Fefelov, Kirill Kurbatov

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