Recently, in the lexicon of Washington officials and politicians, and even the President himself Trump was often meet the phrase "currency manipulation". It refers to a very simple thing - the understatement of the other countries in exchange rates of national currency units in order to increase the competitiveness of their firms in global markets. Earlier in the economic textbooks is called "monetary dumping".
As we have come to this
For nearly three decades after the Second World War, no manipulation of currency and monetary dumping was not. For a very simple reason,: at 1944 year at an international conference in Bretton Woods, decisions were taken on the establishment of the global financial system with fixed exchange rates of monetary units. In this system, it was enchanted by the, to maintain a constant value of currencies. It was established by the International Monetary Fund (the som), tasked with the provision of loans for the alignment balance of payments of member countries of the Fund and avoid currency devaluations.
In the 70s of the last century of the Bretton Woods system began to crumble. upshot, that in its place came another, dubbed Jamaican (the title of the island, where in 1976 year the conference was held, decided to establish a new system). The principle of mandatory fixed exchange rates was abolished. The world entered the era of currency liberalism, involving lifting restrictions on Straddling exchange operations with the availability of capital and currency fluctuations. In the Jamaican system of de facto world currency became US dollar - production of "printing press" of the Federal Reserve System. Foreign exchange rates of the national currency tied to the dollar. The US dollar as the world currency began to appear in several guises: reserve currency, currency international payments and settlements, currency of price (especially in the oil trade).
The US dollar and the Bretton Woods system was the key currency. There, he was provided with a leading position at the expense of the US gold stock and the free exchange of the US dollar for the precious metal. The Jamaican gold system was no longer. Means to maintain the lead (almost exclusive) US dollar foreign exchange position in the world was to ensure a high and rising US dollar against other currencies. In this case, the US dollar would be attractive to all countries and all participants of the world market. If the dollar was undervalued (and, especially, falling), then away from it all began to flee. Yes, in the history of the US dollar after the Jamaican conference moments and even some periods, when the US dollar was down against other currencies. But the long-term fall in the exchange value of the dollar were dangerous, and do everything possible to ensure, the dollar began to rise. After the transition to the 70 years of zolotodollarovogo to standard paper-dollar foreign policy of America has undergone substantial changes. The most important thing - America has moved from exports of goods to the export of capital. And for the export of capital needed overvalued exchange currency rate. For nearly four decades after the Jamaican conference the US dollar against most currencies was overpriced.
The world works in the US
What you did America? Yes, almost anything. For it did other countries, which are supplied to the world market different products. They are something, and needed a rate of national currency, undervalued against the US dollar. And who exactly is the understatement of the national currency against the US dollar? The central banks of these countries, who bought export revenues in US dollars, thus creating an artificially high demand for the products of "printing press" the US Federal Reserve. "The owners of money" (major shareholders of the Federal Reserve) Only hand rubbed with pleasure - by artificially overvalued dollar they bought up a variety of assets around the world. As "masters of money", these people quietly turned into the "masters of the world". Those central banks, that "money masters" imposed around the world, actually worked and continue to work on these "masters"; institutions with a sign "Central Bank" prove to be commonplace currency exchangers, creates artificial demand for green paper and repaint it in the color supposedly national monetary units.
There is a fairly accurate indicator, which determines the degree of artificially low exchange rate of the currency against the US dollar. This purchasing power parity of the currency of the country (Abbreviation - PPS). ROE is calculated as the ratio of the conditional "basket" price of goods and services. Determined price "basket" in the national monetary unit and compared with the price, expressed in US dollars. PPP certain currencies against the US dollar is calculated periodically by various international organizations. It turns out, ruble to the US dollar exchange rate, set by the Bank of Russia, I was underestimated sometimes 1,5 fold, sometimes 2 or even 2,5 fold. Today the ruble against the US dollar hovering around 65 rubles for 1 US. But the faculty of the Russian ruble against the US dollar, according to various experts, is 30-35 rubles. Thanks to the efforts of the Bank of Russia exchange rate is artificially low around twice. Is that why Nabiullina received in the West, the title of "The Best Manager of the Central Bank"?
Yes, in America sometimes grumbled about the fact, that the undervalued currencies of other countries to improve the competitiveness of these countries for some products on the world market. But it was only a grunt. How many times Washington said Beijing, what, breakwater, wrong to underestimate the RMB exchange rate. Back in the 90s of last century, the US Commerce Department is constantly stated, China is engaged in foreign exchange dumping. But it does not object to the increase of cheap imports from China. America loved to live in debt (Payment import using IOUs, called "US Dollar") and consuming cheap imported goods, actually parasitizing the expense of other countries. The price of this parasitism has been degradation of the real sector of the US economy. Well, is the price, you have to pay for a high dollar, not only helps nourishing live, but also to seize assets around the world.
revolution Swap
And on the stage there is a new American president Donald Trump. He decided to radically change the entire US economic policy - from the perspective of the "masters of money", turn everything upside down. For his numerous and sometimes very contradictory statements hides an obvious attempt to revive the real sector of the economy. Hence the aggravation of relations with China, that their goods destroy American industry residues. Keep heading further expansion in China and similar exporters are two main ways. At first, increase import duties (Washington has already made in relation to the majority of China's merchandise exports) and, Secondly, achieving other countries giving up "monetary dumping" (or, according to the new terminology, "Currency manipulation"). Trump instructed the US Treasury tightly engage the theme of "currency manipulation". The Ministry of Finance is now twice a year preparing for the US Congress reports, containing lists of major "currency manipulator". For several of these reports have been prepared. The "manipulators" lists, naturally, in the first place was listed China. There are there other major US trading partners.
From day to day, it is expected to a new report. Already leaked from the US Treasury, according to which the "currency manipulators" list will be increased from 12 to 20. Notably, that is called Russia among the "newcomers" list. oddly enough, Considering, that Russia, to put it mildly, It is not a major trading partner of America. But if Washington will paste Russian currency manipulator label, it will be just fine!
Why? because, that the Bank of Russia, if he wants to continue to receive from the ocean of praise for good behavior, He will have to expand its monetary policy in the 180 degrees. What today is engaged in the Bank of Russia? the, that is buying foreign currency on the world market and in this way lowers the rate of the Russian ruble. Now, from Washington's perspective, - a "foul play", "Currency manipulation". The head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina at a loss. It has already issued a clarification, that the buildup of foreign exchange reserves is not intended to currency manipulation. 23 May Nabiullina said: "We have a floating exchange rate". According to her,, Intervention in the foreign exchange market, in which the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank to buy foreign currency in the amount of approximately 60 billion a year, withdrawing export earnings from the market, "Not aimed at maintaining a certain rate of the ruble".
Nabiullina can say anything - from the point of view of the American Ministry of Finance, is "unfair play", and it may be followed by punishment. for example, additional economic sanctions against Russia, and even (Oh God!) entering chairman of Bank of Russia in the corresponding lists.
it, probably, first time in life, I fully support and agree with the US Treasury's position and repeat after him: "Elvira Nabiullina, stop currency manipulation!"And yet I'd add: "Turn, finally, currency exchanger in at the national central banks, and expand it to face the Russian economy!»
Katasonov Valentine
