Sevmorput. Too many of our fellow citizens believe, that is the main traffic artery of the future world, perhaps, already and not-so-distant. But is it really?
At first sight, NSR benefits compared to traditional routes, sandwiched between Europe and Asia through the Suez Canal, evident. So, eg, way through Suez of Korea in England has a length in excess of 23 thousand. km, and the same road through the SMP will be just over 14 thousand. km.
In other words, way through the Russian North, a much shorter, than in the South Seas and the Indian Ocean. And this, considered by many, It is a key factor, which will determine the commercial success of the Northern Sea Route.
That's "the fruit of collective wisdom" on behalf of Wikipedia suggests the following economic benefits to SMEs:
1. Savings on fuel, the cost of the freight vessel and its crew labor payment.
2. The lack of payment for vessel passage, existing in the Suez Canal.
3. No queues (as is the case with the Suez Canal).
4. No risk of pirate attacks.
A dear Victor Kuzovkov, Author Post on “IN” article "The rise of Russian influence in the Arctic. Will the ice is hot?"Adds to this the geopolitical factor. Which is, that the route passes through the Suez Canal in the areas of the US Navy and NATO control. In an era, when China presented himself as nothing more than a silent factory Uncle Sam, it was absolutely not important. But now, When China is waking up and getting up on their feet an economic and political giant and is not afraid to confront the United States in several areas, its maritime transport arteries and can "push". But the Russian SMEs, of course, anything can happen, so the Northern Sea Route is of great interest to the Chinese leadership.
Let's try to understand, how it all right.
Savings on freight vessel
It would seem, what could be easier - just flying through the SMP shorter, than through the Suez Canal, and then pay for the rent of the transport vessel have less. But first, let's ponder over the following - for the lease of the vessel will have to pay less? Or, to paraphrase the question - which ships can go the Northern Sea Route?
There is such a thing: "Ice class vessel", and it's a whole hierarchy, which regulates the "Russian Maritime Register of Shipping". In other countries have their own similar documents, but our most detailed and detailed, Take, for example because it is his.
so here, at the very bottom of the hierarchy are arranged Court, who do not have an ice class and are not intended for circulation in areas, where possible ice. Then comes Ice1, courts, which assigned to this class is allowed to float independently episodic rare ice non-arctic seas and through ice in the channel when the thickness of the icebreaker to ice 0,4 m. Then go and Ice2 Ice3 - last allowed to follow behind the icebreaker when ice thickness up to 0,7 m. But only in non-Arctic seas.
Then begin classes the Arctic. A total of six, they start with Arc4 (L1), which allowed independent navigation in sparse annual Arctic ice during their thickness up to 0,6 m in the winter and spring and to navigate 0,8 m in the summer and autumn. For icebreaker can go up in ice thickness 0,7 m in the winter and spring and to 1,0 m in the summer and autumn the navigation. And end Arc9, which are able to break through their own perennial Arctic ice 3,5 m in the winter and spring and to navigate 4,0 m in the summer and autumn. Well, then start already icebreaking classes Icebreaker6-9.
So what are the ships can go on the Northern Sea Route? Yes, any! even those, who do not have an ice class. Here are just a walk, they can only summer-autumn navigation, which lasts from 2 to 4 months of the year, depending on the ice conditions
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Number of vessels, SMEs in the past 2014 g
At the same time they, SMP is required for the passage of icebreaker assistance. even in summer. No, here, of course, there may be some options - if the weather is very favorable for, the small transport ship, not having the ice-, and perhaps be able to slip along the shore. But it can not slip, a lot depends on the nature: and in a normal state SMP icebreaker will still need.
And in the spring and winter navigation, under which SMEs are understood to 8-10 months of the year? Everything is very simple - the northern route allowed ice-class vessels of not less than Arc4, and they must follow strictly accompanied by icebreakers. Theoretically, the SMP may try to pass without icebreaker assistance, but it is not always possible (All again depends on the nature), and this can only venture with ice class vessels of not less than Arc7. Moreover, and here everything is easy, As the author is not at all clear, Will even Arc7 break between Dudinka and Chukotka.
Naturally, that in order, to go from China or Korea through Suez, no ice class is not needed.
So it turns out, that instead of, to carry cargo through the Suez Canal, you can charter a boat is absolutely the same and go for it on the NSR. but only 2-4 months of the year. And what to do with it is the ship in the rest of the time? obviously, "Chase" through the same Suez. In this way, benefit to the owner of such a charter will generate far all year round.
But in order, to go round the SMP - good enough to build an ice-class vessel Arc4, but better - Arc7.
Russian class tanker Arc7. Here we can also, if you really want!
Is it expensive? exact figures, Alas, the author can not lead, but judging by the amount of work - much more expensive. For, to the ship could go on the ice is required enhancement of its literally in all respects. Stronger need to be absolutely all the elements of its set - frames, stringers, set of beams, stem. Besides, planking and deck should be stronger, we need more special "overlay", the so-called ice belt. A more powerful must be power installation, since it is not only to "push" the ship itself, but also "stuffing" the ice, even if it follows the icebreaker.
A crew comfort? excuse me, but to provide acceptable conditions for his life and work on the ship in the southern seas - is one, and AMS, at a temperature of minus fifty - is "a little" more. A load? of course, many categories of goods completely unimportant temperature regime, but there are other. So what, do for them is also heated bilges?
Little of. It should be understood, that the Northern Sea Route - is the north. Not even so - a real Russian North conditions of existence which is not just difficult - they are extreme. And the technique is much faster it wears out, than relatively mild equatorial conditions. This fact has even managed to recognize the domestic tax, permitted to apply the amendment to the amortization period for equipment, operated in the Far North. Therefore, the service life of ships in polar or less will be its "equatorial analogues", either their initially in the construction necessary to do more, so as, to ensure longer life.
clear, it all - only general reasoning, but if taken for evaluating the economic efficiency of the freight vessel - it is necessary to take into account all the above factors, and, for sure, and many things, about the author, not being a professional, simply failed to mention. But we must understand, that as a result of correct, the calculation takes into account all factors, ship freight cost, the ability to walk in polar conditions may be even higher, which ship to the southern seas. Despite the smaller the distance of the route.
Saving on fuel costs
She is, of course, will be. here, for example, Chinese merchant ship "Tyantszyan", "Skip" on the Northern Sea Route in the town of Esbjerg in Denmark, sekonomilo15 days of travel and 383 tons of fuel. It came out from the port of Lianyungang and get to Esbjerg in Denmark, breaking the 6280 nautical miles, , and it is 4779 less miles, than if the ship went through the Suez Canal.
A lot of it, or slightly? Considering, that the cost of fuel, According to the author of the data, may range from 150 to 400 Doll. per ton (price in Singapore 2014-2016 g) gain in the summer months for this vessel was (rough) from 58 to 153 thousand. Doll. A lot of it, or slightly? "Tantszyan", generally speaking, not too large vessel.
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“Tantszyani” himself
Its gross capacity is 26770 tonnes, deadweight 37979 tonnes. Length 189,99 m, width 28,5 m, draft 8,6 m. Maximum Speed recorded 15,1 host.
If we assume, that this "Tyantszyan" flight was fully loaded - get, that the savings per tonne was 2,16-5,71 Doll. it is a lot. But let us not forget, that "Tyantszyan" took place in one of the two most comfortable months. Do not forget, that ice-class vessels Arc4 fuel consumption per ton of cargo as a whole will be higher, than the ordinary courts of the same gross tonnage (heavier body, a more powerful power plant). And further, let us not forget, that larger ships fuel consumption per ton of cargo is much lower (economies of scale), and hence the savings will be less.
Further. As far as can be understood from the publications, "Tyantszyan" done without the help of icebreakers (although it is not a fact) but here in the winter, or in more difficult ice conditions, save 15 days it would not have happened - like it or not, and behind the icebreaker speed will be lower, respectively, increased time on the route. And further. The complexity of the ice situation depends on the distance from our shores. That is, the closer to the North Pole - the thicker the ice. kind of, Well what's the problem - go closer to our shores ... And the problem is actually a very big, because, surprisingly, these areas are shallow. And large vessels, having draft up to 15 m can not be carried out on our shores, their routes will have to run far to the north, ie there, where they definitely need help icebreakers.
Savings on crew wages
There will be no savings, because there will be a continuous overspending. No, of course, counting, that the crew will receive payment for their works in exactly the same rates, and that the southern seas - then it is of course. for example, assuming, that "Tyantszyan" during the transition through the NSR came with the same average velocity, which would go on a route through the Suez Canal, in this case,, with hourly wages, the savings would amount to approximately 43% from the sum, which would have to spend when navigating through the Suez Canal.
That's just not going to forget, that the Northern Sea Route to go - it's a lot more hard work, than to go out there with all sorts of Indian Ocean. We, throughout the SMP operates regional coefficient 2 - ie the tariff schedule the employee the same profession there should receive twice as much, than its counterpart with similar qualifications anywhere in Moscow or Leningrad regions. And in the market wage differentiation conditions can not be avoided - for constant work for NSR crew will have to pay a lot more expensive, than the usual routes through the Suez Canal.
Incidentally, the question is not only in the working conditions. Besides the captain is also needed special training for navigation in ice conditions, that is, a captain will be more qualified.
The lack of payment for the passage of the Suez Canal
What is, i.e, following the Northern Sea Route, pay do not have to pay for the passage of the Suez Canal. But you have to pay for icebreakers wiring. how expensive?
A little bit more 5 years ago, Order of 4 Martha 2014 g. Federal Tariff Service approved the tariffs for icebreaking pilotage, provided to the FSUE "Atomflot".
These rates are calculated on 1 ton cargo, and depend on the ice-class vessel, its gross tonnage, Navigation and route length. Result of completely no sense, but note, that the same "Tyantszyan", if it does not have an ice class, When posting on all areas of the SMP would have paid 1 072,42 rub. per ton of gross tonnage (rather than actually transported cargo). In March 2014 g about dollar 36 rubles, so that the Chinese people would have had to shell out about 30 US $. But this is - in the summer. But in the winter and spring navigation, 'Tantszyani', in the absence of ice class would not have allowed. Well, if it has one, and corresponds to the Russian standards, let us say, Arc4, the passage would be possible, but at the same rate would be increased to 1 340,57 rub. or 37,23 Doll. per ton.
Similar rate for passage of the Suez Canal from 8 to 12 Doll.
But what is interesting - apparently, tariffs "Atomflot" has not changed to this day. obviously, that after more than 5 years, they pretty outdated, and is unlikely to provide a certain number of our acceptable profit FSUE - as in any way, During this time, inflation even higher than official figures 42%. apparently, then acts hail from "above", so as, to make an attractive passage through the NSR for foreigners. But even today,, when the dollar is worth 65 rub., "Tyantszyan" would have to pay about 16,5 Doll. In summer and autumn, and the navigation 20,62 Doll. in winter. As you can see, tariff in winter navigation "ate" completely full save on fuel (about 6 dollars maximum), and still remained above, than the payment for the passage of the Suez Canal.
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no queues
Lack of queues and associated downtime would be perfect, if it were not for one "but!». Today, when the volume of traffic on the Northern Sea Route is small, Our icebreaker fleet is quite able to hold court at the request of, i.e, when there is such an order. But what will, if there is a magnification of ships? And if their number will grow by orders of magnitude, about what, properly, and many dream, SMEs wishing to transformation in the "New Silk Road"? Alas, any reasonable number of icebreakers with it will not cope, willy-nilly will have to form caravans. A caravans - mean downtime, formed long caravans, there is nothing to be done about it.
No risk of attacks by pirates
That's really something which, but the pirates on the Northern Sea Route is not expected quite sure. But let's think, how are compensated "pirate" risks? Very simply - by cargo insurance. In this way, question smoothly flows into the cost of the plane insurance, although some prefer to use mercenaries to protect goods.
The question is only one - and whether the insurance of ships, moving along the NSR, cheaper than conventional insurance when following a route through the Suez Canal? well yes, pirates, of course, no, but in the presence of almost uninhabited area, with very difficult conditions of navigation, with very poor infrastructure of ports / airports, with great difficulty, that will arise if appropriate rescue crews of ships in distress themselves and these vessels. Generally, perhaps, in the distant and bright future, when the SMP is the same number of vessels, how many cars in Moscow in the hours on the road rush, insurance and cheaper, but so far this has not happened, expect expensive rates. Even in spite of the pirates.
But, can, thaw?
Indeed - we've got a bunch of scientists, that predict global warming, but then the traffic conditions for SMEs should significantly improve ... But Should not? The thing is, that the reduction of the ice layer does not necessarily facilitate the navigation. Ice conditions can become even more unpredictable, because such warming could increase the number of icebergs, breakaway ice which poses, and moving way malopredskazumym. Who wants to play in another "Titanic"?
But what about the geopolitics?
In fact, the political aspect of a really cries out to foreign shippers, that in no case do not bet on the Northern Sea Route.
After all, what's a company, is going to organize a year-round transportation of goods through the NSR? Firstly, build a fleet of cargo ships of ice class Arc4. Serve these vessels will be several decades, and the work they have only to SMEs, because if we have to send them to the Suez Canal, the excessive strength of housings, excess capacity machines, etc.. lead them to the economic inefficiency. Can, and they certainly will work in profits, but these gains will be less, Cem th, which would get the company using conventional court. Respectively, part of the profits to be missed, and the language of "lost profits" and "losses" of the economy are synonymous.
In other words, invest in the construction of the Arctic Fleet, the company must be confident, that the next 30 years or even more than one will not let this go Navy Northern Sea Route, and that the passage of the NSR will be cost-effective.
And who can give such guarantees?
the incredible
As we can see, in foreign policy Russia is back on the position of the USSR. That is the Russian Federation is trying to counter US hegemony, while Europe, Alas, It remains on the side of "good guys from overseas". NATO, despite different friction, still preserved as an organization, and European countries are quite amicably approve of regular anti-Russian sanctions. And now the Russian Federation had to play the role of "anti-American" peace pole, so only its economic and military capabilities of any comparison do not come with the same features of the USSR. We have something in any case have to do it, we simply have no other choice, but what a commercial company is able to guarantee the, that the conflict between Russia and the Western world does not intensify and lead to some form of economic warfare, making extending SMP uneconomic? let us say, some monstrous port charges for ships, unable to present a "ticket" for the passage of the Suez Canal?
kind of, completely divorced from reality. But if we undertake to speculate about the future, wherein possible naval blockade of China (Bees against honey, Europe just yet dreams of, as if to give up cheap Chinese goods), then why not?? And even if we abstract from all of the above, and take for granted, China's blockade is still possible, and even then you need to understand, Northern Sea Route that does not give the Chinese economic security courts. US Navy to support Japan and NATO naval relying on England and Norway are able to prevent them before the start of the SMP, or block the passage after the exit from the.
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And now - about the real danger
In tariff, countries that pay for the passage of the Suez Canal, there is one undeniable plus. they are manageable. And all because, that the fee for the passage of this channel, Egypt goes to the state budget. And Egypt ... how shall I say ... with all due respect to its sovereignty did not in the weight of trying to impose its own rules of world powers. And if he tries to charge more, than reasonable adoption fee and the parties, there is no doubt, in, that the Egyptian government quickly "put on a kind of".
But who will be able to "put on a kind of" Power, whose nuclear arsenal is more than enough for, to drive in the United States of America to the Stone Age for half an hour?
Any foreign company, assessing the prospects for SMEs, before, how to build a fleet of Arctic ships, look at the state, which lays down rules on the Northern Sea Route. And what it sees? Russian Federation, standing in opposition to the Western world, but most importantly - the country, with very fragile economies. And where is the guarantee, not today, but through the years, so 10-15 the new leadership of the Russian Federation does not want to share a little bit so make your company profits, "Lightly" inflated prices for ice-breaking services? In this case, trucking companies, risked invest in the construction of the Arctic fleet will incur very substantial losses, but the opportunities to put pressure on the Russian Federation to reduce these tariffs, the international community has almost no.
Any merchant needs such risks?
Conclusion
He is surprisingly simple. To develop the Northern Sea Route is certainly important and necessary, because it is - our transport artery, and provides about supply 20 millions of our citizens, northerners, and the need for removal of mineral resources has not been canceled. There are other reasons - because we declared the polar region on its borders to the North Pole of his possessions, it is necessary to settle their. AND, certainly, if at some point in time we will be able to offer adequate NSR transit conditions, that some of the traffic can really shift from Suez to us.
But today neither the Northern Sea Route, or in the foreseeable future in any case not be able to compete with the classic route via the Suez Canal, Alas.
Andrew from Chelyabinsk
