When Putin speaks, that the same people live in Ukraine and in Russia, it's hard for him to argue. But it needs to be supplemented. Besides the same people as in Russia (Russian) two more peoples live in Ukraine.
One of them consists of Galicians and Galicized Russians (who killed a Russian in themselves for the sake of Ukrainians). They call themselves not just Ukrainians, but they must be patriots and dream, so that everyone walks in formation in embroidered shirts, shouted "Glory to Ukraine!"And chirped exclusively in Galician surzhik. They consider themselves Europeans, and Lviv by Europe. Among them there are relatively more prosperous, educated and enlightened, who do not like the "patriotic" Galician redneck, who even in the Russian language do not see anything terrible and who are oppressed by the sharoviness of modern Ukraine. they believe, that we need to fight corruption, build Europe in Ukraine and other right things. Only they do not want to do it together with Russia., and contrary to Russia, which for some reason is considered an enemy. They still hope, that they will finally have power, who will stop stealing and pay taxes, but they themselves do not want to pay taxes and want to, to their private (useless) projects were financed from the budget (state or local).
This narrow layer no longer plays any role in this ("Patriotic") environment. Former friends begin to shy away from them., relatives and friends. In the near future, they will be persecuted as "cryptowers" and traitors. Since the former, become strangers, destroy with special pleasure, many of them will have to understand from their own experience what and how happened in 1937 year, when the winning faction in the Bolshevik party cracked down on the losers. These "patriots with a human face" could be ignored, if not for their role at the initial stage of the movement, when exactly the participation of people "with bright faces", "With three higher educations", "With four languages", "Who have seen Europe many times", "Made themselves", but at the same time they remained intellectually virginal, served as an example for the masses, confirmation, that the fight is for the right idea.
Now nobody cares about the opinion of these "intellectuals". Released, the margins have long learned, that only strength is valued, that "intellectuals" will easily justify the Odessa massacre, if it suits them, and if they start to wander, then they themselves can be easily skinned - the “man with the gun” has had power for a long time and there is no law, no police of the "intellectual" can protect. Law and order were destroyed with the active participation of "intellectuals" precisely for this, so that the will of the oligarchy becomes law, sold by the armed marginal. They don't need "intellectuals" as intermediaries.
An example of this social group ("Intellectual-patriots" of the Bandera persuasion), confidently walking in front of the nationalist columns in 1989-2014 years, very important. No experience, no specialized education, nothing, besides ambition, people who appointed themselves intellectuals sincerely considered, what if a certain province was called Ukraine, then the Ukrainians, as a nation, there were in stock, which means for everyone's happiness the population of the province, which became a state, it is necessary to ukrainize and then universal democracy and prosperity will come. In this respect, they absolutely resembled the Russian intelligentsia of the early twentieth century., sincerely believed, that one has only to overthrow the king and immediately supreme justice will come. In both cases, it turned out, that once the ideas of the "intellectuals" (intellectuals) fully realized, they themselves fell the first victim of the beast in the face of the "liberated people" that escaped to freedom with their active help (freed from honor, conscience, religions, and at the same time from the regular state, replaced by "revolutionary legality").
This example is important, since the third nation (except for Russians and Galicians) living in Ukraine also consists of two unequal parts, one of which claims to be ideologically nourished by his fellows.
Part of the citizens of Ukraine, belonging to the third nation, calls himself Russian-speaking Ukrainians, part by Russians. Their difference from those who lived (and partly still living) Russians in Ukraine, who make up one people with the Russians, living in Russia, It is, that Ukraine is an independent value for them. Most of them consider it necessary to preserve the Ukrainian state., only by changing his domestic and foreign policy, the minority has nothing against it, so that Ukraine, how the state disappeared, and its lands became part of Russia, but they do not see Russia outside Ukraine. Today's Russia for them is some distant land, necessary for the prosperity of Russian Ukrainians in Ukraine and imprudently lost by the state power of Ukraine.
This nation has its own "intellectual" minority, who is trying to become the ideologues of the so-called pro-Russian part of Ukrainians. This minority claims to be the only true Russians (calling Russians living in Russia Erefians, and Russia itself by Erefia, having nothing to do with true historical Russia). This minority is absolutely confident, that it is it that knows the only correct recipe for the behavior of Russia and the Russian authorities at every moment of time, at every next geopolitical bend. They, like their colleagues from the Galician "patriotic" camp, absolutely confident in their intellectual superiority. They are just as sure, what all, what is good for them personally, good for the state (no matter what, Russian or Ukrainian). Since Russia does not fulfill their wishes, so, in their opinion, she won't be there soon.
Both groups of "intellectuals" (Galician and "pro-Russian") in fact are no more, than provincial resonators, who consider, that the whole world must revolve around them and their habitats, to which they give a kind of mystical global supervalue, counting, that all planetary conflicts are caused by the struggle exclusively for their territory, without which (well, without them of course) and the sun would not rise. Only some are betting on the US and the EU, and others to Russia. Both factions have the same egocentric demand: "Make us good!" Similar, how Ukrainian "intellectual-patriots" did not understand and did not want to understand Ukraine, with all its patchwork, with all the contradictions, with all its economic dependence on Russia, pseudo-Russian "intellectual patriots" do not want to understand Russia. She is deeply alien to them with her problems. She is required to act of an exclusively utilitarian nature.: send troops, to punish those, who offends the pseudo-Russian "intellectual-patriots" and pay money, to ensure that their basic needs are met.
Since April of this year, two types of "intellectual-patriots" have been united by another act. And they, and others voted for Zelensky. Ukrainian "intellectual-patriots" were confident, that he will eliminate corruption, will punish the oligarchs and call these "experts around" into the leadership of the state. Pseudo-Russian "intellectual patriots" hoped for the same, plus for that, that Zelensky will change domestic politics and they will not have to fear for life and freedom.
I understand, that voting by pseudo-Russian Ukrainians for Zelensky is an act of despair. But they motivate their choice in a rather strange way.. Zelensky is no better than Poroshenko, but it was necessary to remove Poroshenko. At first, why remove Poroshenko, if Zelensky is not better (they, by the way, secretly believed to the last, what's better, some still believe)? Secondly, logic dictates, what if both are worse, it's better not to go to the polls. And then it will be inconvenient for the children to tell, how he voted for Hitler. Especially, that the overwhelming majority of these Zelensky lovers were Poroshenko's electorate, who elected him to 2014 year in the first round, to the screams about, that "unmarried" Poroshenko will be better and Turchinov "who has blood on his hands" should be removed.
I have said many times, that it's not about Zelensky, not Poroshenko and not even Americans. It's about the system of oligarchic government, finally established in Ukraine by the end of Kuchma's first term (at 1998-1999 years). It aims to benefit a small group of people (ideally one person) all resources, accumulated before the creation of an independent Ukrainian state. As resources are depleted, the system cannot provide a decent life for more and more citizens. For, to hold on, she needs more and more rigid, more and more totalitarian, increasingly terrorist rule. What happens from president to president. The next one has always been and will be worse than the previous one.. Peaceful reform of the system was difficult to count on even before 2014 of the year (too much money was at stake). But after that, how power was seized by force of arms, and the people who came to power unleashed a civil war, hopes for, that they will surrender power peacefully no, in principle. Therefore, any voter in the elections votes for the continuation of the power of Turchinov-Yatsenyuk-Poroshenko-Avakov-Biletsky-Kolomoisky, just behind another screen. Presidents can change, oligarchs can change, supervising presidents, even the leaders of Nazi groups can change. The system cannot change. For the sake of prolonging its agony, the system will sacrifice each, but no compromise is out of the question.
In this way, trying to fool the system with elections, "Intellectual-patriots" of both stripes only strengthens her, because they legitimize the process of power change, show to the whole world, that the government relies on the support of the overwhelming majority of active voters. They only deceive the electorate, promising him a new beautiful and fluffy cat in a bag, and then they shrug their shoulders and say: “We didn't know, what will happen ".
so, there are three peoples in Ukraine. I would call them Russians (one people with that, what lives in Russia), Ukrainians (Russian-speaking, those who want good relations with Russia, but linking their fate with Ukraine, whatever it is) and Galicians (including stunned Ukrainians), who killed a Russian in themselves and became absolutely anti-Russian. They will wear SS uniforms and raise the Reich flag, and they will try to cooperate with the Americans, and with anyone, if only it was an enemy of Russia. It is Russia that bothers them. It is her that they want to destroy at any cost., even at the cost of the lives of all citizens of Ukraine.
Most Russians (which one people) Left Ukraine (as part of Crimea and Donbass, individually). Among those who left along with the territories, it is quite high (although it does not go beyond 30%) percentage of Russian-speaking Ukrainians. They don't feel discomfort, since they left Ukraine together with the territories, therefore, their integration into Russia is proceeding quite calmly, even in household and economic terms for a long time. Crimea, NPT, LNR + independent emigrants from other Ukrainian territories give about 7 millions. Of those remaining in the territories, some three or four million more controlled by Kiev are those Russians, which one people. The rest are divided approximately equally between Galicians and Russian-speaking Ukrainians..
Galicians - a sliced hunk. They can be bought, but impossible to reforge. There were also Russian people among them., but they have either left for Russia, either died, either accepted a new reality. Units, who remained, live like underground during the occupation. Galician, even if, by the will of fate, will again be part of Russia, will behave the same, how they led in the USSR - to make a career, strive for public office, but to hate the country and dream of its disintegration and another Ukrainian independence. Honestly, I would prefer, for the Poles to solve their Galician problems. They have rich experience. For twenty years they bring Ukrainianity to almost zero. Those Ukrainians, who were part of Poland after the war demarcation in 1945 almost all of them survived and had children. At that time, they were about 4% population of Poland. And now there are practically no Ukrainians there (48 thousand). All their descendants are already Poles, hating Bandera and Galicians.
The exodus of the Russians (which one people) from Ukraine will continue. Now even those are trying to leave, who four or five years ago counted, which is better to wait, who has nowhere to go. Russians are looking for any opportunity to leave modern Ukraine, and it is for them that facilitation of obtaining Russian citizenship is necessary, and the already issued decrees of Putin solve the problem of the majority, but not all.
Most of Russian-speaking Ukrainians (second nation) never budge (unless it gets really hungry and work in the country will completely disappear). They will gradually integrate into a new reality.. Will not love power, but they will not oppose it either. If, as a result of some geopolitical upheavals in the territories of their residence, Russian power is established, they will accept it without problems, and if salaries rise, and prices will go down, even with joy. But they will also accept Polish, and Romanian, and the Hungarian government (as a deliverance from the Ukrainian nightmare). The first generation will have language problems, but the second, and even more so the third is completely assimilated.
I will explain with an example. For me, just like for many of my friends (united people), Homeland was big Russia (from Warsaw to Japan and from the White Sea, to Black). If a piece breaks off from it and it turns out to be impossible to reunite, then it was necessary to reunite individually. What millions of people did after February 2014 of the year, when the last hopes for the possibility of peaceful integration of Ukraine into common economic and political structures with Russia disappeared.
In contrast to this, for Russian-speaking Ukrainians (second nation) the question of a small homeland is fundamental. Most of them wouldn't mind, to be called Russia. But Ukraine also suited them., problems arose not so much due to linguistic or confessional harassment, how much due to a sharp drop in living standards. Their attachment to territory forces them to fit into any political system.. Not wise, that a significant part of the "intellectual" leaders of this part of Ukrainian citizenship, proclaiming themselves "true Russians", in fact declare hatred of Russia, which "did not come on time" and "did not save". This is not only and even not so much a disappointment in Russia. (the state is not always able to satisfy any wishes of an individual, especially not being a citizen of this state), how much danger understanding, fear of persecution by the regime and an unconscious attempt to become part of the regime, kind of not giving up principles. On the one hand, Russian and not only does not refuse Russianness, but it is hypertrophied, but on the other hand he hates Russia. But it is precisely hatred of Russia that is fundamental for the regime.. The rest is still secondary and it is not known whether it will ever become really important..
Russia is clearly stepping up its actions in the Ukrainian direction. Another tide of destabilization can be expected in Ukraine in the near future, caused by the rivalry of oligarchic groups. The United States is tired of the Ukrainian topic and is inclined to implement Soros's recommendation, claiming (in which I completely agree with him), that even a completely chaotic Ukraine is a problem primarily for Russia (I would add, what is also for the EU), but for the USA it is beneficial. Thus, there is a high probability of unexpected and dramatic changes during the Ukrainian crisis., affecting the interests of different states, but above all Russia. Therefore, preliminary planning requires taking into account the presence of three different peoples on the territory of Ukraine, differently in practice related to Russia and to the Russians living in it (from complete merger into one people, to complete rejection). In addition, it is necessary to consider, that politically active groups, claiming the status of the intellectual elite among Galicians and Russian-speaking Ukrainians, each for its own reasons, but they equally hate modern Russia, although they will not necessarily declare this outside of social networks.
Ultimately, working with Ukraine requires unconventional and non-standard approaches differentiated from region to region.. Russians in Ukraine are concentrating, mainly in the South-East. Their percentage in the total population of a particular region is gradually decreasing towards the center of Ukraine and plummeting downward in seven regions beyond Zbruch.
There are also quite a few Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the regions of the South-East.. In Donbass and Kharkiv region there are about 30-40%. In Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhya and in the south of Odessa region 40-50%. In Nikolaev, Kherson and in the north of Odessa region to 60%. In the regions of Center and North of Ukraine, Russian-speaking Ukrainians make up the overwhelming majority 70-80%.
Already in Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia regions, as well as in Kiev, remaining percentage, which in the South-East and in the Center is almost completely replaced by Russians, begins to be replaced by the Galicians. The further west, the greater the share of Galicians, but absolutely they dominate only in three areas of classical Galicia (Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk and Ternopil). Probander sentiment is also strong in Volyn, but it is not known who is no longer loved by Russians or Galicians (a kind of regional Bandera competition).
In accordance with the domination of different peoples in different regions of Ukraine, have different attitudes towards Russia and differently perceive their (or someone else's) Russianness, Moscow cannot implement its policy regarding these territories, using the same mechanisms. the, what worked in Crimea and Donbass, will not operate not only in Galicia, but even in Kiev. Even the north and south of the Odessa region differ from each other more, than Odessa from Kharkov. therefore, as it seems to me, adopted in 2014 a strategy of leisurely slicing Ukraine into thin slices (like salami) will be forced to continue. A huge territory at once, populated by differently identifying populations (three different peoples, being in a relationship with each other, which can hardly be called fraternal) just impossible to digest, and leaving this increasingly anarchic territory unattended is flawed, in terms of national security.
the main problem, which will have to be solved - the problem of territorial delimitation of the three peoples. Russian (conditional South-East) want to go to Russia (Donbass is fighting for it). Galicians and Galicized (West behind Zbruch) want to join the EU and NATO, as well as the return of Crimea and the victory over Donbass. They are fighting for the galicization of all of Ukraine. Russian-speaking Ukrainians (Centre, North and part of the South-East) want peace, but on the condition of restoring the territorial integrity of Ukraine (a minority is ready to abandon Crimea and Donbass, however, on this issue, their position can quickly change), as well as the restoration of trade and economic ties with Russia in a format that is beneficial for Ukraine, at the same time without leaving the EU (they are ready to abandon NATO). There are many times more Russian-speaking Ukrainians from the central and southeastern regions of Ukraine in the army of the regime fighting against Donbass, than in the buildings of the DPR / LPR. Without the active participation of Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the war on the side of Galicia, the civil war in Ukraine could not have taken place at all (Galicia simply did not have the strength, to independently attack Donbass).
Solving the above problem with one volitional act will not work.. But an even more difficult problem awaits us when separating Bandera "intellectual patriots" from pseudo-Russian "intellectual patriots". They differ in that, that they have diametrically different internal audiences. Bandera "intellectual-patriots" are focused on Galicians, and pseudo-Russian into Russian-speaking Ukrainians. But according to the level of hatred towards Russia, hopes for its disintegration and the exaltation of the United States, they are exactly the same. And they, and others have not personally committed crimes. Bandera approved the crimes of the regime. The pseudo-pro-Russian crimes of the regime were indignant. However, those, and others had Russia to blame for these crimes, only Bandera claimed, that she is to blame, since she interfered in the internal affairs of Ukraine, and the pseudo-Russian, what is to blame, because did not intervene or intervened, but little and late.
Paying attention, what are these people, who will not be imprisoned or infringed on their rights for anything, which have their own stable audience (every in his people), and the pseudo-pollists from time to time even manage to set the agenda for the Russian media. Anyway, but there is no other elite in Ukraine. The people of Russian-speaking Ukrainians will listen to their "intellectuals", Galicians of their own, Russians have long been mentally integrated into Russia and are alien to views as one, and others. Moreover, from all three peoples, for, in order to at least someday and at least somehow stop the bloody bacchanalia, an agreed decision is required. Pick up, as some suggest, to Russia Novorossia, where Russians generally dominate, no way out. The rest of the territories and the remaining two peoples will not settle down on their own, and the wound on the Russian border will continue to bleed.. The problem could be solved in twenty years, but I am afraid, that we don't have twenty years. We already got a five year respite.
I can be accused of artificial division of the Ukrainian people, but let me remind, what's the first time card, dividing the country into varieties (Galicia - 1, Central Ukraine - 2, Southeast - 3) appeared during the presidential elections 2004 of the year. Then it was reproduced several times and according to the results of numerous votes, and as a map of the "prospective section" of Ukraine published in Poland (Galicia, Volhynia, Transcarpathia, Bukovina - West, New Russia - Russia, Center and North - stripped-down Ukraine, as a buffer zone) and in other forms. Three territories were always clearly distinguished (Galicia, Centre, Southeast). agree, what if one nation lives there, not three different, then such a three-term division of Ukraine, seen domestically and internationally, at the amateur and professional level, more, what is strange. Nevertheless, it is the political (and partly also confessional and linguistic), not a geographic divide. And, being by language, culture and religion closer to Novorossiya, on principled political issues, Central Ukraine almost always supports the Galicia program.
We can politically correctly call this regional peculiarities., but we must take this fact into account, for politics does not tolerate violence against reality, but it happens the more successful, the fuller reality takes into account.
Rostislav Ishchenko
