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"Final Goodbye" podkralsya nezametno, though was visible from afar

«The final farewell» crept unnoticed, though was visible from afar

Just came out a few news in the last few days, which transparently it hinted to us the fate of Ukrainian gas transportation system (GTS). Hint each individually and quite clearly indicate collectively.

At first, yet 5 March design company, which implements the project of development of the gas transport system of Serbia, received permissive decision of the Serbian regulator, then immediately signed a contract with a contractor for the construction of a gas pipeline. In early April, the operator has the Bulgarian gas transportation system "Bulgartransgaz" said, I chose a contractor design and construction of gas pipeline, which will gas "Turkish stream".

Secondly, Hungary and Slovakia have declared, that they are prepared to stop the gas transit through Ukraine.

So, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Hungary Peter said Siyyarto: "At the moment between Ukraine and Russia, there is no agreement on the transit of gas for the period, starting with 1 January 2020 of the year, and, respectively, It can easily lead to a situation, when natural gas supplies from Russia will not come to Hungary or Slovakia, and this is, to which we must be prepared ".

Respectively, He held talks with the Minister of Economy of Slovakia Peter Zhigoy, as a result of which an agreement was reached on joint measures in the event of this scenario. In particular, planned expansion of the "Turkish Stream" in the territory of Serbia and Bulgaria.

Thirdly, the very next day after the announcement followed news about Siyyarto, Romania with 2 May starts building gas pipeline Ungheni - Chisinau, to protect Moldova from possible termination of gas transit through Ukraine.

"We are taking another step towards energy security of Moldova. It means, that our country will be able to make decisions on the benefit of citizens, without risk, because we will have an alternative source of natural gas ", - said the Acting Prime Minister of Moldova Pavel Filip.

by the way, the planned date of completion, prisoner contract according, - not later 20 February next, 2020 of the year.

Gazprom's gas supply contract in Moldova by old valid to 1 January 2020 of the year. And it also has no extends, that already eloquently.

Fourth, the latest news - "Gazprom" announced, that "Turkish stream" is guaranteed to be launched before the end of this year,.

The offshore part of completed, Now finish building the coastal receiving terminal and have already begun laying the onshore section of the pipe.

That is, all sources in all countries, not only support the preparations for the abandonment of gas transit through Ukraine, but also to agree on an date, when it happens, – 1 January 2020 of the year.

Actually, looking for such urgent and thorough preparation, it can be argued, that the termination of gas transit through Ukrainian gas transportation system - is already Resolved Question (otherwise all participating countries would not be spending hundreds of millions of dollars to build detours).

And then the question is not just in finance. Ukraine not only loses about 3 billions of dollars of annual revenue for transit, but also raises the question of the supply of gas in Ukraine in general,.

Because until now although formally Kyiv declared the termination of purchases of Russian gas, but in fact the "reverse" of Europe was only virtual. That is really gas is taken from the GTS still in transit, and no physical reversal of the European Union was not. Just pay for gas with the overpayment fictitious European intermediary firms.

FROM 1 January next year this number will no longer be held. To take gas from the Russian transit capacity is no longer because of the absence of this transit.

We'll have to carry out a real reverse gas from Europe. And with this, there are purely technical issues.

At first, CTA itself is tuned for gas transportation in a certain direction (westwards), no duplex mode there is not provided. That is, you need to invest more in the modification of the pipeline under the new needs and challenges. Do you see a similar training? And I do not see. No one even said this moment of the respective plans, not to mention the practical implementation.

Secondly, to carry out a reverse gas from the EU, We need physical presence of excess gas in Germany and Slovakia. And where they come from, if two threads "Nord Stream" will block almost needs the EU Nordic? More and Ukraine to ensure the power of the pipeline is not calculated.

Here it would be good to hear the opinion of a specialist, but my preliminary estimates suggest, cash that gas in the Austrian-German hub will be enough only for their own needs.

And even if the above problems will somehow solve (I imagine little idea, How can I do that), then there is also a question of price: gas from Europe really is to "Naftogaz" much more expensive, than today's "Russian reversible".

Add to that the recent cessation of deliveries of coal, oil and oil products from Russia to Ukraine, and a ban for Belarus for re-export of Russian oil products to Ukraine - and we will see a total blockade of hydrocarbon supplies.

And, as usual, Ukrainian "patriots" do not understand the seriousness of the situation. And not only, that do nothing to diversification of supply, but more, judging by the publications in the "Explorer" and other Ukrainian t. n. mass media, going to "earn on oil supplies to Belarus, if Lukashenka fell out with Moscow ".

They simply fabulous! "Fool Dumka richer" - it is absolutely about them. Instead of thinking about how, where to get fuel for agriculture, they dream to cash in on the supply of non-existent in the nature of oil.

I sometimes have the impression, that they themselves are stunned by the fact, that the Kiev regime were able to survive for five years. And they are the remnants of this lost sense, uverivshisь, it will last forever.

But fairy tales do not happen in reality. There are just fabulous ...

Alexander Rogers

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