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Ukraine in exchange for North Korea: Whether Putin will hit and hand Trump?

Ukraine in exchange for North Korea: Whether Putin will hit and hand Trump?

On the island of Russian concluded negotiations Russian President Vladimir Putin with the DPRK leader Kim Jong Ynom. Instead designated by the regulations fifty minutes they talked for two o'clock, discussing primarily the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. The meeting took place two months after the, Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump were not able to agree on anything in Hanoi.

maybe, move the negotiations off the ground to help Russia, the potential that the issue of North Korea's renunciation of nuclear weapons have not yet been used. Only as a quid pro quo, Putin may be required by a host of concessions to Ukraine of the White House.

The decision of the Korean conflict - one of the obsessions Trump. His predecessor also excelled in the field of peacemaking: when Barack Obama began to subside tensions between the US and Cuba. The short period of normalization of their relations in the Western media dubbed "the Cuban thaw".

But with a light hand Trump 2017 year, everything was back to square one. The current occupant of the White House tightened its policy towards Cuba, He promised to keep the sanctions pressure on it and overturned several decisions of Obama.

This approach fits into the overall logic behavior Trump, literally tearing all contracts, which caught him by the arm. Looks like, in his picture of the world deal Democrats a priori do not meet US interests. And it brings to mind the Cuban case the president is not going to another reason, that is to achieve in the end we will still be recorded to the credit of his predecessor.

In place of the Cuban came "Korean thaw".

The issue of the DPRK for Washington at least a fundamental. North Korea, though not on the "backyard" of the United States, but it possesses nuclear weapons. The propaganda effect of denuclearization promises to be much more powerful, than the effect of normalizing relations with Cuba. Then you can seriously think about the Nobel Peace Prize.

tramp, by the way, and without thinking about it. Yet again, Obama became a Nobel laureate - and it is the worse?

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has decided to correct this injustice, putting forward the candidacy of the US President for the award (kind of like at the request of the US government). As a "merit" Trump referred to his dialogue with Kim Jong Ynom at the first summit in the history of the US - North Korea in Singapore. That's just no agreements concluded with North Korea was not.

Great expectations for the next meeting in Vietnam. "Hanoi meeting was to give the first tangible results on the path of nuclear disarmament of North Korea, but instead it has become a symbol of the insurmountable difficulties, existing between the two countries ", — пишет The Wall Street Journal.

The American press has reacted rather calmly to the results (more precisely, their absence) another round of talks with North Korea. Pyongyang's stance, journalists at least understand.

Is there a guarantee, that after the elections 2020 the new President and will refocus its peacekeeping "urge" toward Cuba, the same does not appear in the US? The lack of continuity in the foreign policy of American forces Kim to be extremely careful and watchful.

In addition, the North Korean leader is well aware, what fate may be destined to countries, ready to give up the slack in the negotiations with Washington. When Libya gave up its arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, Bush administration promised her mountains of gold and the eternal prosperity. End all wars, the disintegration of the country and the eternal chaos.

"I do not put into question the benefit of the Libyan intervention, - wrote one of the leading American analyst Fareed Zakaria. - But if you were a negotiator with North Korea and Washington promised you security guarantees, This part of the story might seem a relevant and disturbing ".

North Korea needed serious retaliatory gestures. For the elimination of the nuclear complex at Yongbyon Kim demanded the lifting of sanctions. "In essence,, they wanted a full lifting of sanctions, but we have to go for it could not ", - summed Trump. He does not consider the talks in Hanoi failures, although the fact remains - the US president's waiting for at least some of the transaction.

The much-publicized program denuclearization breaks. Given the context of the US-DPRK relations, search for a compromise may take years, and the presidential election in America is not far off. If it goes on, Korean argument of the campaign Trump would have to strike.

Going to a meeting with Putin, Kim Jong-un has started to realize the concept of the "other way" denuclearization. About her North Korean leader said during his New Year's address to the nation, that is, before the meeting with Trump in Hanoi. Even then, he had a presentiment, that Washington's tough negotiating position will force him to look for a new solution to the conflict scenarios.

obviously, in one of these scenarios special place is given to Russia, which is clearly ready to contribute to the conclusion of agreements.

Russian potential in unraveling the tangle of contradictions Korean still uses weak. On the other hand, mediation of South Korea and China - is not impartial players in the region - while not help Washington and Pyongyang to better understand each other. Moscow, too, can not be called disinterested party, but its degree of involvement in the conflict is much lower (although Russia and North Korea have a common border).

Notably, that Kim Jong-un the story does not end at the signing of an agreement beneficial.

As the example of Iran, conditions of such transactions are not always respected. North Korean leader will need serious guarantees, China and one can not do.

Russian ambassador in Pyongyang, Alexander Matsegora have said, that Moscow, basically, ready to provide their services: "If at some point the need will arise, and North Korea will show an interest in this topic - guarantees from Russia and China, - I think, this issue could be addressed in Beijing, and Moscow ".

The question is:, Is Donald Trump the potential Russia is interested in this "front". And it is ready to repay, if the Kremlin turn to the implementation of the program of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

In theory, Washington could have Moscow return the favor in the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. Given the background of the war in the Donbas, We have to talk about it with a great degree of conditionality. No samogo Trump, as is known, Ukrainian issues are not interested in the word "completely".

For him it is terra incognita - a distant, incomprehensible and useless in terms of profit country, which previously "was headed by" exclusively Democrats, led by former Vice President Joe Biden.
the, as is known, Ukraine managed almost in manual mode ...

Putin's decree on simplification of procedures for issuance of Russian passports to residents of Donbass on the verge of recognizing the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republic (LDNR). For the new government is the first and last warning: or begin to take real efforts for a peaceful settlement of the conflict, or forget about the breakaway territories once and for all.

For Kiev second preferred embodiment looks, and the Americans must have both hands "for". Moscow's recognition LDNR - guarantee, that the rest of Ukraine has going for it is lost completely.

However, the key question should be worded so: who we have in mind, when we say "the Americans"?

United States corrode such serious internal contradictions, that on the key issues of foreign policy different centers of power can occupy diametrically opposed positions.

In fact, Trump has not said its word in Ukraine. Wants to say or not, time will tell.

Alex Ilyashevich

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