A few days ago appeared in the media information about the failure of Ukraine plans a provocation in the Kerch Strait and the Sea of Azov. As it appears, stopped the official Kiev Germany and France. It is worth recalling, Ukrainian warships that have tried to cross the Russian territorial waters and were detained by the Russian coast guard.
Plans to repeat this provocation voiced at Avakov and Turchinov, About, that the Russian side is aware of these intentions, reported a number of high-ranking Russian officials. For example, head of MID RF, Sergey Lavrov.
At the same time the plan of the ruling circles of Ukraine in respect of a new conflict was a truly global. It was assumed to involve the EU standoff, or rather, the NATO countries. In the same scenario, and insisted the US.
but, at some point, the German chancellor, and, according to some, French President, categorically refused this idea. Or rather, They refused to provide its warships for joint campaign in the straits. There was a failure, and the wording of the initiative of Merkel, wherein, in a very harsh manner.
In particular, allegedly, that the chancellor has said the German supporters' pressure on Russia "following: "You talk, like children! You assume, that Putin will not take anything and will look, we defiliruem in the Strait. And if it will make our ships, same, What has been done with one Ukrainian? Are you, war Germany offer, Madam Minister? Why should we neglect the interests of Germany, for the sake of US interests?».
It does this phrase for a real reason to or not – question. But what finally understood, European countries do not provide their ships for provocations against Russia.
“As rightly said colleagues in the media, at the bottom of the Black Sea a lot of European ships and hardly powers such as Germany and France want to add some more. In the case of provocations in which they participate, it seems to me, Russia initially would have blocked the passage under Crimean bridge freighter, and demanded a formal application and capture pilot, and if not obeyed – would suit warning aircraft overflights and patrols the Black Sea Fleet ships”,- shared with Pravda.ru retired captain 2 Grade A Northern Fleet Nikolai.
“Further – crowding out, simply put the ram, as it was with the US ships. In an extreme case, – fire on propulsion, screws. Well, and if the fire started counter… understandably, that would be a response to the defeat. This is war, Yes, de jure. But de facto – Western military themselves say, that the Black Sea was organized by the Russian and the Crimea “bubble deny access”, impenetrable (fleet, aviation, missiles, MLP, and so on). There they found peace and. And they know it”,- he concluded.
This rejection of Europe weaved several factors. economic, political, and even historic, too. From the point of view of the economy is quite obvious: "Nord Stream-2" and close European cooperation with Russia on issues of fuel.
clear, that the US is not satisfied with cooperation, States themselves and have long wanted to take this market. Wherein, it's desirable, in exclusive right. And the confrontation with Russia a number of European countries have set up this kind of crisis.
But it is perfectly understood in Europe. As well as the, American energy, simply by virtue of transit, will be much more expensive. A plus, additionally would tie Europe to the States, and would tie it in the order of submission. On the other hand, to Russia to work for less and politically safer, despite the public rhetoric of Europeans.
By itself, this type of conflict, European warships may not be just a kind of "local conflict" and a pretext for another round of sanctions against our mills, а casus belli, the reason for a very large war. because, it will mean the beginning of open confrontation between NATO and the Russian Federation. And it is so global and impartial policy, that it is better not to begin. Especially at the request of Ukraine, state, which and so on the verge of statehood.
In addition, Russia recently, during large-scale military exercises, including jointly with Belarus, It has demonstrated its readiness to repel any aggression.
Well, and historical factors has not been canceled. France, Germany remembers, what ended for them a military aggression against our country. Also, with the current development of military technologies and weapons of mass destruction, there is a high probability, it will generally be the last European aggression in someone else aside.
As for Ukraine and directly Poroshenko, and this idea with military provocations belongs to him, here all more than interesting.
Elections in Ukraine very soon. Loud political actions have Poroshenko went nowhere. The so-called "autocephaly" has not made any unity in the Ukrainian people, a, in front of, He aggravated the division of society along religious lines. Furthermore, more Local Orthodox Churches do not officially recognize the newly formed "Ukrainian Orthodox Church". About the social and economic situation of ordinary Ukrainians, about the state of the infrastructure, and in principle, the standard of living and security, in principle, nothing to say, so all "below the bottom". Understandably, Poroshenko that opponents blame in all of this was his.
The only way out for the Ukrainian President – a new martial law, positioning themselves as "defender of the nation" against Russian aggression. But such a move is possible only in the case of joint actions with Europe. About what, by the way, no further, last year, Poroshenko announced publicly and quite officially.
But not grown together. because, Ukraine in the form, in which it remains today is simply not interested in Europe. Of the potential partner, or at least the resource base, This country has become a factor of instability, huge "problem area" for all European countries.
But in general,, everything in this story are guilty. And Ukraine, and European countries. As for Russia, then our military doctrine, and our foreign policy on equal and open partnership as much as possible including with Europe, and with the same Ukraine it has long been known and repeatedly voiced by the Russian president. But, it seems, Now is not the time for an adequate and equal partnership. However, certainly something that, and wait for our country and our state are able to.
