"Insolent to such an extent, that we begin to twist arms ". With these words, the Belarusian leader spoke not of anyone, and of his closest allies - Russia. What prompted Lukashenko to such emotional outbursts? As it appears, Moscow is starting to change the approach to cooperation with the leadership of Belarus on economic issues.
In response to the ban by the Rosselkhoznadzor supply of apples and pears from Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko sister republic erupted with anger and threats. These prohibitions he regarded as the introduction of Russian sanctions against Belarus (and at the same time mixed with apples cucumbers).
"Our main trading partner (they like to call themselves "partners") more and more introduce sanctions against Belarus. Sami are under sanctions and condemn it, I absolutely support them here. But while such weapons are at war against its closest allies ", - said the Belarusian dad. "That one plant shut down, something else. Then either carrots, Does this prayer, either already do not like cucumbers. Whether they have a suspicion, we deliver something not there. And every day there are closing our businesses. We cover the market ", - quoted Lukashenko "Belta".
As a result, Lukashenko has threatened to shut down for repair pipelines, which is Russian oil to Europe - with the explicit aim is to harm the Russian budget. "If you want to put on the repair of oil and product pipelines, that go through Belarus, place and repair. Because of the good, that we do for the Russian Federation, it turns out we are constantly evil. There have already become arrogant to the point, that we begin to twist arms ", - said Lukashenko, referring to the Belarusian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Lyashenko. "We have to take appropriate measures. Well, we all the time: We hit on the left cheek - we substitute the right ", - demanded that his government the president of Belarus.
Belarus designs repair of five sites, "Druzhba" oil pipeline, He told RIA "Novosti", the first deputy general director - chief engineer "Gomeltransoil Druzhba" (Belarus pipeline section operator) Andrew Verigo. "This year, the pipeline will 55 years. Pipes in the ground lie, 80% pipes laid even our grandparents. Imagine, the metal is more than 50 years lies in the ground. Naturally, it requires repair and maintenance ", - noted Verigo.
Resentment Belarus to some extent understandable. It could be nice to make a re-export of goods from the EU sanctions, starting with the shrimp and ending with apples. "In a year it can be tens of millions of euros, for five years - a hundred ", - says First Vice-President of "Russian club finance directors' and the managing partner of" 2K "Tamara Kasyanov.
However, the prohibition of imports of apples and pears from the country has a specific reason: Belarus violates Russian laws. Lorry with fruit go or no certificates, or with falsified certificates - an illegal re-export of prohibited goods.
Rosselkhoznadzor said on Thursday, he has reason to believe, Minsk that certifies products under the guise of a sanctions Belarus. According to the service, fruits and vegetables come from Belarus using fraudulent schemes to bypass the phytosanitary control posts, without documents and labeling, packed in the same container and is similar in species and varietal composition with fruit and vegetable products, which produce Belarusian companies.
As for the threat to block the transit of Russian oil for apples, even under the guise of repair, it looks pure bluff, says a leading expert of the National Energy Security Foundation Igor YUSHKOV. At first, a decision to carry out repairs not accept President, and the company - the operator of the pipeline, and together with the Russian side. Besides, According to "Transneft", Pipeline condition satisfactory.
Secondly, no problems with carrying out pipe repair the "Druzhba" oil pipeline transit without stopping there. "Through Belarus passes less and less oil, because the reduced supply of oil pipeline to the west. Russian companies prefer to send more oil to the east, since there are greater margin. Large volumes are thrown to the ports ", - says YUSHKOV. And indeed Europe as part of the diversification of supply reduces purchases of Russian oil. In this case, the supply of oil to China rose by almost half. Since Belarusian pipelines underutilized, You can simultaneously repair a pipe, until the oil is swinging on other.
"Transit stop - a radical step, which will result in greater problems for Belarus itself. For us, this area remains a major transit, but temporary problems can be solved. oil streams can be redirected to other routes. Lukashenka in fact threatens the temporary stop for repairs, and repair can last a maximum of a month, and it's a lot: per month, you can bypass pipeline lay ", - ironically YUSHKOV. As a result, the repair complete, and the residue will remain.
Which may lose Belarus in case of aggravation of apple oil conflict? Minsk pay ruble. At first, he will lose money for the transit of Russian oil.
"Secondly, Belarus risks losing 0.5-0.7 billion, who gets behind the so-called peretamozhku 6 million tons of Russian oil ", - says YUSHKOV. This new form of subsidies, invented in 2017 the year after the next oil and gas dispute between the two countries.
Minsk actually buys from Russia of planning 24 million tons only 18 million, the other six "peretamazhivayutsya". These 6 million tons of Russian oil transit through Belarus go through the pipeline "Druzhba", without changing the property rights. Russian companies sell it for export and pay the export duties to the Russian budget. But, according to the agreements, Russia returns the money from the Russian to the Belarusian budget. According to Yushkova, Russia may cancel reply "peretamozhku" with 2020 year - and to stop subsidizing the Belarusian budget in such a way.
Thirdly, Lukashenko may lose Russian oil, which is at a reduced price directly to Belarusian refineries. There it is processed and re-sell at a good profit in the form of oil products Europe. "If implemented radical scenario, then Russia says: "Really, Pipe some old, rot through, Let's doing ". And we, on our side, too, will begin to repair the pipe. And then they will be left without oil refineries and will stand ", - says Igor YUSHKOV.
Finally, new conflict does not solve the main question for Lukashenka - concerning compensation in the framework of the tax maneuver,
which is being implemented in Russia 2019 by 2024 years. Now Belarusian refineries receive from the Russian duty-free oil. However, in the Russian tax maneuver gradually nullify export duties (30%). As a result, the Belarusian oil refineries will have to buy Russian oil at market prices. Russian refineries will be in a better situation, as the Russian budget will compensate them for their losses. Minsk, in fact, wants, to Russia from its budget to compensate for losses and to Belarusian refineries.
According to the Belarusian Ministry of Finance, the republic's economy from this tax maneuver will lose 10 billion: 3 billion - falling budget revenues, and 6 billion - damage to the two Belarusian refineries. The Russian Finance Ministry said earlier, that Belarus asks Russia to subsidize their refineries in the amount of 2 billion a year, but Russia is not ready to go to such waste.
The list of outstanding issues two. Lukashenko earlier start of the next fight for the reduction in Russian gas prices and higher tariffs for transit of Russian oil. The cost of gas in 129 dollars per thousand cubic meters Minsk dissatisfied, although it is the lowest price of the former Soviet Union. The annual increase in the tariff for transit of Russian oil through Belarus by 7-8% Lukashenko also not satisfied, it requires to increase the rate by another 23% from 1 May.
"Before, after harsh statements the heads of two allied nations met and solved all problems. Now Lukashenko exacerbates the situation, then meets with Putin (all the New Year holidays with Putin sat in Sochi) - and nothing, any concessions. apparently, Lukashenko already negotiating tactics should be changed. Because the tactics of "hitting - rollback" only leads to negative results for most of Belarus ", - the expert believes FNES.
"Until recently, Russia has agreed to compensation in the framework of the tax maneuver, could only agree on parameters. But then, Lukashenko began to speak publicly, Germans buy cheaper gas, than Belarusians. Putin it pulled the, that Minsk wrong calculator, that prices for natural gas in Germany is actually higher, than for Belarus. But after that once marked cooling of relations: tough stance and we began to take our ministers, and the Embassy ', - concludes the source.
Olga Samofalova
