Care with leading dollar, currency, which for a long time to actually rule the world, - the prospect of a very ambiguous. And indeed, It will take place in the foreseeable future, farewell to the dollar, not yet able to say even the new Nostradamus, yavis he suddenly.
clear, that it will not happen soon and did not immediately, Nevertheless the trend already evident. And it is not so important, whether it is necessary to record in the vanguard of the Russian, who has decided to get rid of the omnipotence of the American currency.
the most amazing, today forced to make room for the dollar Communist China with its yuan - the currency, a long time tightly tied just to the dollar. This might well have been expected from the euro, much earlier, that this, a stretch - the ruble with the socialist countries currencies.
On the yuan in this regard, no one put in the first place because, that sales of Chinese goods, even in those countries, which could well do without the dollar, originally carried it for dollars. In addition, the yuan is always rigidly controlled by the issuer - the People's Bank of China, who repeatedly devalued or revalued the yuan, without any consultation with the Federal Reserve - the US Federal Reserve.
At some point over the ocean, looks like, finally realized, that slowly, but surely it becomes not only a market for goods from China, but in fact - in the economic appendage of China, which is about to dictate the rules of the game, even in the sphere of high technologies - the birthplace of the largest US corporations. The impression, that it was then that the United States and had to go to classified trade war global competitors. Furthermore, This explains the unexpectedly strong support, who was in the presidential election, Donald Trump pragmatist big business.
But, looks like, that while the Fed, without advertising it too obvious, It puts on a serious weakening of the dollar. clear, it will not only help American businesses to take better position in the competition, as well as reduce the cost of a dollar of public debt. It is from this perspective we can estimate the almost complete indifference of the Fed to have a well-perceivable trend of the dollar as the repression of the trade, and from the state reserves almost all over the world.
In, that in this respect, Russia was at the forefront of, now no one doubts. And we have no one tries to pretend, that the policy of de-dollarization - is something like a short company without much hope of really major changes. A complete rejection of the investments in dollar-denominated assets in Russia is still no question, but the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, to their credit, They began to be guided by the principle - to translate into dollars only those means, which do not find other utilization.
This is the case, as evidenced by the data of financial statements, in which, Unlike statistics, errors are virtually eliminated. so here, "Review of the Bank of Russia on asset management in foreign currencies and gold" clearly indicates, that one of the biggest projects for investment of foreign exchange reserves Russia (ZVR), actually becomes an asset of RMB.
more autumn 2017 , the share of Chinese government bonds accounted for less than one percent of gold reserves (no more than four billion dollars). Indicator, which was published a year later, I was already 13,6 percent, i.e 62,5 billion. Wherein, the total volume of Russian foreign exchange reserves at the end of 2018 I have made 466,9 billion. As a result, more than fifteen times the growth of Chinese government bonds PRC immediately came in third place on the sum among the assets in the portfolio of the Bank of Russia, ahead of not only the American paper, but even the sovereign bonds of Germany (12,2 percent). Ahead of Chinese securities as of today - only the French (15,1 percent) and monetary gold (16,6 percent).
Putin and Erdogan discussed the implementation of contracts on the S-400 "Triumph"
experts believe, that the yuan's share in reserves of the Bank of Russia in recent months has continued to grow, since markedly growing trade turnover between the two countries, and likely, It will continue to grow. AT 2018 the growth of the Russian-Chinese trade amounted to 27,1 percent and significantly exceeded 100 billion. Because of, that no truce or lull in US-China trade war is not expected, This year the growth rate may be even higher.
Recently, in February, the Chinese government has allowed Russian companies to supply Chinese poultry. And this is after 15-year break, When the main suppliers were, of course, uS companies. Many domestic manufacturers of pork and dairy products are also waiting, that for them will soon open an almost inexhaustible Chinese market, since Beijing after a fairly long discussions in the party summit introduced import duties on agricultural products from the United States.
characteristically, Beijing not only continues to refuse US goods to Russian, but practically to zero svol calculations with Russia for most goods. Exception for oil and gas remains in force until only because, that the dollar calculations in this field are still traditional practices. but, traditions, as you know - it is not a dogma and not even the law.
At the same time, Chinese partners have worked hard to, to a number of Russian banks were able to quickly connect to the Chinese system of CIPS (China International Payments System). This not only allows us to simplify the routing of payments procedure, but also get rid of the two countries from unnecessary business relations with third party, primarily US regulators.
Parallel to this, the Bank of Russia managed to create an analog infamous SWIFT system - financial messaging system (FERS), already represented in China. Despite, that the more the system is not ready to completely replace the SWIFT, the Central Bank noted, that autonomy in bilateral calculations not only makes it easier to service turnover between Russia and China, but also provides the ability to manage the mutual calculations without dollars.
It should be noted, that the Russian-Chinese antidollarovye measures are almost in parallel with the, that are taking the traditional allies of Washington. So, in the last days of March, it became known, after analysis of all opinions the European Commission should develop recommendations to phase out the use of the dollar. This sensational statement tried not to notice how the European, and Russian business media, which, incidentally, is not surprising in view of their purely "dollar" engagement.
Germany and France, and joined them, despite Brexit, UK started thinking about, how to bypass all sorts of sanctions, that the administration has put on stream Trump. In this respect, the European partners, Firstly, of course, bothered sanctions against Iran, the development of relations with whom they had already invested hundreds of billions of euros - primarily, It is counting on the expansion of the potential market for, and enormous potential source of supply of hydrocarbons.
but, the mechanism is developed, as a universal, and should help to circumvent not only anti-Iranian, but also anti-Russian sanctions. Not by chance in the number of recommendations, that the European Commission has made, must enter widespread use of so-called "trade exchanges support mechanism" (Instrument for Supporting Trade Exchanges, INSTEX).
While this arrangement provides, that payments for oil and other commodities, Europeans imported from Iran, will be credited to the account of a specially created company. She will buy European goods and services to Iran's economy and send to Tehran. Should I explain, that "universal" mechanism may well be used as, to replace Iran to Russia, and Tehran - to Moscow.
Also, as the main principle of the work already named INSTEX counterparties anonymity: the company does not intend to disclose the partners in Europe, that will save them from the threat of exposure to the secondary US sanctions. In brief comments to Bloomberg highlighted the Commission's proposal, that "when paying through INSTEX mechanism will not use the dollar, to the US Treasury could not track their movement. Operations in euros or pounds will not be visible to the American authorities ".
Novorossia get Russian passports
On creation INSTEX it was officially announced back in late January, but information about its practical use is still nowhere, even in Tehran, although in the same Bloomberg believe, that the wait is very long, especially, Washington in May plans to toughen sanctions against Iran. The first will be shortened list of countries, who are allowed to buy Iranian oil. Among others, ban, obviously touched by Italy and Greece - the last of the EU in the list of beneficiaries. The European Union has every right to regard the next US sanctions against Iran as a declaration of a local trade war, but practical Europeans, looks like, They prefer the more subtle mechanisms. And INSTEX mechanism - this is one of them.
The European Commission in recent days has had time to take another hard attack against dollar. And he may well wear a much more wide-ranging, limited than the struggle for the right to trade with Iran. media reported, what 31 March The European Commission completed the procedure of collection of expert opinions and the EU position regarding the transfer of payments for oil from dollars to euros. A truly revolutionary initiative, capable of exploding carbon market, owned by European Commissioner for Climate Change and Energy Miguel Arias Cañete.
He made it back in December of last year, noting, that "The EU imports 34 percent of energy resources from Russia, 33 - from the Middle East and North Africa, 20 percent - from Norway, and only two per cent - from the United States, but at the same time 85 percent import contracts are denominated in dollars ". Cañete Commissioner drew attention to the excessive currency risks for European energy companies, which can lead to problems in the calculations of the European countries with contractors, in the case of the introduction of the United States economic sanctions against them. experts believe, being the first in the list of counterparties must be regarded as Russia and Iran.
You have to understand, that such a demarche antidollarovy Europeans definitely lead to another drop in US currency, and as a consequence - to improve the competitive position of American business and reduce the cost of US government debt. ruble same, even with such support from the EU, as before, It will remain difficult to predict, as befits the commodity currencies.
but, as it turned out, performance Cañete number of impacts on the dollar does not run out. The answer to the President's speech straight Trump address OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) It was the statement, made a few days ago the official representative of the ruling Saudi dynasty.
Riyadh sounded a warning, what, if Washington goes on any concrete steps against OPEC (I had in mind the idea to adopt a law, directed against the restrictions on the production, OPEC input) Saudi Arabia is ready to abandon the settlements in dollars in the sale of oil. And this is really can become for the US Federal Reserve and a disaster - it was already quite possible to be undermined by the dollar's status as the major reserve currency. Whether the Fed will be able in this case, play the card of "cheap dollar"? This has very serious doubts.
Alex Podymov
