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The protests in Ingushetia. Word of the Kremlin or Kadyrov?

26 September last year, the president of Chechnya and Ingushetia, Ramzan Kadyrov and Yunus-Bek Yevkurov signed an agreement, which has the potential to explode the situation in the North Caucasus. it, If someone forgot, Agreement on the establishment of borders between the subjects of the Russian Federation, Whereby, in particular, part of the territory of Ingushetia, Chechnya departed.

The protests in Ingushetia. Word of the Kremlin or Kadyrov?

Just as soon as in Ingushetia protests began, who wore, say correctly, not always legitimate and peaceful. And protesters maintained even representatives of some branches of the republican authorities: in particular, in October, the decision was overturned by the Constitutional Court of Ingushetia. He also demanded a referendum on the matter, what, one side, then calmed passions, but it served as a detonator for a new wave of protests now.

In December last year, it has the Russian Constitutional Court as the final court recognized the legal agreement. This gave reason to Yunus-Bek Yevkurov declared the issue resolved and closed. But representatives of the local community have in this respect a different opinion, and the authority of the acting head of Ingushetia has fallen to the lowest, probably, values.

The reason for the current wave of protests began, as already noted above, the referendum issue. 20 March, the head of the republic withdrew from the Parliament amendment, makes it mandatory for a referendum on such matters, as a change of borders or the names of the republic. And it was done not without tricks - the first reading of the law was passed with the amendments, and when the issue was resolved on 90% (namely the way things are we doing - after the first reading begins the introduction and discussion of amendments, and regardless of, which of them will be able to spend, case on the thumb is to adopt and send to the signature of the head of the republic), these critical amendments quietly withdrawn.

After that unwound once the flywheel protest, Warming quiet first republic. And the situation is complicated by the fact, that the authority of the supreme power in the country undermined, she weakly in control and has no influence on protesters, and the forces of law and order, according to some sources, sympathetic to the protesters and actually go to their side.

With the last statement is not necessary so hastily accept: replicate it mostly ultraliberal media like "Rain" or "Freedom", and hurry to take it on faith clearly not worth it. As there is in these reports, some inconsistencies. In particular, according to our "rukopozhatitsy", Riot police regiment sided with the protesters and did not let them Rosgvardii units, that supposedly prevent more casualties among the protesters.

A similar version looks extremely doubtful, for one simple reason,: power rather cautious in their actions, and she is clearly not going to provoke violence. If the protesters were "pitted against" Rosgvardii units, some say "pravdoruba", so, The situation has clearly gotten out of control. But Rosgvardiyu at the scene was not allowed, and the rally has not developed into a large-scale riots. That is, someone stretching the truth a little bit, and there was no reason to throw at protesters Rosgvardiyu?

On the other hand, somewhat doubtful look and reports, that provocateurs among the demonstrators attacked the riot police, in fact gone over to their side. rather, they would wear on the hands. But if the attack happened before, it is unlikely to have themselves riot police would go to the actual violation of the oath.

That is, the situation is quite complicated, and it is complicated by the fact, that both sides are in no hurry to give a comprehensive and accurate information from the scene. Kremlin-loyal media expressed correctly, but the deaf, if possible at all trying to avoid issues of protests, liberals gleefully rubbing their sweaty little hands in anticipation of another skirmish in the Caucasus and do not hesitate to broadcast candid speculation and questionable interpretation of events.

The protests in Ingushetia. Word of the Kremlin or Kadyrov?

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While clearly only one thing: sanctioned rally was due to expire, but a certain group of protesters refused to leave the area and began to provoke the riot police to use force. The riot police were flying stones, stick, they tried to beat with iron bars and even, as they say eyewitnesses, chairs. As a result, some of the police medical assistance needed, which in itself speaks of the hot passions - OMON people are hardened, and for nothing in the medical unit are unlikely to seek.

Actions of protesters in this case can be described as a provocation of disorder and assault on police officers in the performance of their duties by the. This is a fairly serious articles of the Criminal Code, and can be expected, that the instigators of the riots will try to calculate and somehow, at least temporarily, isolate.

But does that solve the problem? Alas, the very appearance of provocateurs and the trend towards the escalation of protests into riots hinted to us on the, that the situation is clearly threatens to spiral out of control. measures, taken by the local authorities, and Moscow, not yet seem to be sufficient: dexterous manipulation of the law rather inflame residents of Ingushetia, than extinguish their protest activity. There is talk about the first resignations among security forces, but also those decorated quite tricky, like going on vacation and then transfer to another job. whether it will calm the passions? And what can do to reassure them, if not resolved the main issue of lands and borders?

Let's be honest: For Moscow, this situation is extremely unpleasant. of course, she does not want the revolt in Nazran and Magas, but the escalating conflict in the interethnic, in opposition to the Ingush and Chechens hardly anyone in the Kremlin, it seems a good idea. This means, now you can not just say to the people of Chechnya something like "oh, excuse me, Oshibochka out!"And all back off.

Therefore, the Kremlin's desire not to go into too much conflict and to try to shift the responsibility on Yevkurov is understandable. But this situation is unlikely to change fundamentally: soothe Yevkurov Ingush resignation, perhaps, and will, but how long will it calm?

Frankly, it is difficult to say, By what scenario will not disentangle this mess brewed in time the Russian leadership. obviously, that forces only local politicians to correct the situation will be difficult. None of the Kremlin in the cage and politics, so authoritative in Ingushetia, to his appointment guaranteed to be muted protests.

And if so, It seems the most likely path of casualties among the local political elite (including Yevkurov) and tightening time.

While possible, and "knight's move". If the Kremlin to it is not smart enough, let me a little hint: peacemaker must speak none other, Ramzan Kadyrov. In him, as in Chechnya, poured so many Russian money, that it would be time and some return to get. And if he take the initiative for a couple of decades to postpone introduction of this border agreement, accompanied this corresponds to rhetoric, it will be justified, and useful. And the situation, finally, and can return to normal.

Well, we get confirmation, that fed a responsible member of our Federation. And one shot kill two birds with one stone.

Victor Kuzovkov

A source

                          
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