Business would be out of politics, but he is aware of his dependence on it. he regrets, that the well-known theory of Karl Marx's economic base and ideological superstructure is not actually confirmed by the practice.
This is one of the unexpected impressions, I left from the recent debate over US-Russian business ties in the fields of the Russian Business Week in Moscow. The conference, arranged by the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) and the Valdai Club, officially was dedicated “Economic cooperation between Russia and the US in the face of uncertainty”.
For myself, I tried to clarify the question of whether, see whether the business is now at least some “A light in the end of a tunnel” US-Russia relations.
“error Marxism”?
About it, It determines whether the economy is a policy or, rather, conversely, Leading the meeting asked Zahar Smushkin, who heads the leading Russian pulp and paper company “Group “science” and develops large-scale joint projects with American partners. He replied without hesitation: “Of course, conversely, absolutely”. And he added,, that initial postulate - “Marxism is simply a mistake”.
Track and the head of the US-Russia Business Council, Daniel Russell complained with mock regret: “I would like to, to Marxism worked”. of course, Only in the sense of interest in the, “to the economic base determines the political superstructure is really”, and decisions were made “rationally, based on a set of facts”.
implied, as long dominated politics, sometimes relying on emotions, this can only dream. And in the main report on the session, presented by an expert from the Moscow Higher School of Economics Dmitry Suslov, One of the key recommendations was to ensure, what “It should be possible to depoliticize the continuing economic relations with the United States and not to position them as a means to improve political ties”.
Business does not want to be a backup
Furthermore, the report's authors urged to abandon attempts to spur bilateral economic cooperation “from above” - in the name of improving political relations. In their view, such efforts, including through the establishment of “all sorts of commissions and high-level panels”, in the current conditions not only will not give the desired result, but also “can be fatal”. Because the, At first, only cause further irritation “leadership and political elites of the United States”, and secondly, themselves and “indicate US lawmakers and executive authorities, Against whom else should impose sanctions”.
by the way, these most US sanctions against Russia, according to the compilers of the report, “not only they will not be canceled in the coming years, if not decades, but, in front of, will very likely be tightened”. Although this topic discussion panelists unanimously pointed, what, eg, punitive measures against RUSAL and En + Americans overdone and only hurt themselves.
Respectively, can hope, they are unlikely to again step on the same rake: not by chance, eg, The US Treasury has recommended not to impose sanctions against Russian government debt. However, applications, full of confidence in the, that such restrictions will not, Still did not hear. And to counter the sanctions proposed to improve the business climate and to raise the investment attractiveness of our economy.
Correspondence dispute
As is known, at last year's July summit in Helsinki, the presidents of Russia and the United States agreed to establish a high-level group, that would bring together the captains of Russian and American business and was intended to promote mutual trade and investment. In the US, the Summit considered a failure to Trump, and the idea died out. But the Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed to me now, that the agenda is not removed and the Americans about it when the opportunity to remind.
The result is a sort of correspondence dispute between our businessmen and diplomats. Confess, I like it - at least as a visual demonstration, that the decisions taken at the top and can be challenged, and publicly. RSPP President Alexander Shokhin at the conference told, what, in his view, Russia and the US retained chances - albeit low - to get on at the political level.
“We need to forget about, what we, leading Business Dialogue, We help our leaders, politicians”, - said the head of the business association. “It is possible to start with political relations”, - he added.
In the context of the report, theses which Shokhin voiced and supported, it can be understood and how “supply” authorities: you, breakwater, arrange a first between a, and there and for business will not be found. In the meantime, we will be better to stay in the background.
“advertise dangerous”
View and other evidence of this approach. The same Smushkin began his speech with a Jewish joke about the three degrees of need: “when there is no money, when absolutely no money, and when it's time to sell dollars”.
so here, as yet, in his view, to get the last nest egg no reason. On the example of his own company, he argued, that the Russian-American business in general good feeling. Preparing new projects, against whom “No one speaks a syllable”, anyway, till.
President of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia Alexis Rodzianko told, that already this year went to the opening of three new Russian plants of companies in the US. But it stressed, that journalists at the ceremony was not invited, because the “advertise considered dangerous”.
“If you notice, is closed, - said the expert fears of entrepreneurs. - And it is not clear, someone close: whether Americans, whether Russians. That is better to behave more quietly”.
Suslov convincingly argued, Russia and the US really need each other as business partners and the business between them is more alive, than dead. For example, he cites official statistics on investment and contrasted it with the corporate.
According to official data, the amount of accumulated US investment in the Russian economy today is estimated at $3,3 billion. But at the same time last year's survey 72 US companies in Russia shows, that only they have the amount of such investments amounted to $82,6 billion.
The conviction of researcher, the conclusion is clear: Statistics do not reflect the whole story, including trade and investment through third countries and offshore, but really “US confident in the top five Russia's economic partners”.
The China factor
expert believes, that both parties make sense to value the experience of cooperation and step up its. for example, he considers, that the Americans can and should raise the question of the notorious refusal to sanction it, where it is mutually beneficial, - say, in areas, associated with the development of Siberia and the Far East.
I immediately consulted with the Americans and asked, why is it again without a hint of sanctions convenient target for hardcore Russophobes of the US Congress.
Suslov said, Americans are not interested in a rapprochement between Russia and China, and will not “shoot yourself in the foot”, the more that they are in this sense, even under pressure, and their allies in Japan and South Korea. It's really powerful argument, which often sounds in the US.
At the time, the patriarch of the American geostrategy Henry Kissinger postulated, that in the triangle Moscow - Beijing - Washington wins the one of the vertices, which is closer to the other two. Now, both he confirmed to me recently managing director of Kissinger, former adviser to President George W. Bush - junior Tom Graham in Russia, “the most advantageous position is China - and almost automatically, due to the lack of serious dialogue between the United States and Russia”.
“It has always seemed strange, that for many years the Chinese and Russian government officials are discussing with one another the United States, and the Chinese and US - Russia, but Russian and US officials is difficult to discuss China, - Graham said. - It is not in the interests of neither the US, neither Russia”.
frightening ghost
Marxist Communist Manifesto opened the famous warning that, what “A specter is haunting Europe”. At this meeting,, can say, wandering ghost of the founder of the investment fund Baring Vostok American Michael Calvi, is now in pre-trial detention on suspicion of grand larceny.
Participants of the conference - and the Russians, and Americans - the chorus expressed concern about the case and hope for its speedy completion of the safe for the investor. stressed, that for Moscow to respond to the constant attacks of the US counter-punches - it means to harm herself. Unless Smushkin in this context, said, what “it is difficult to prevent a person, which kicks, defend”.
Later on the sidelines I pulled people to talk about, that the detention of Calvi - a, probably, a signal to the Americans about, that they too can make it hurt. Understanding is not found. Shokhin said, that this way of signaling reminds him of Russian ditty “male female [kissing], looking”. However, According to him, its the episode as a whole is generally more interested not in the international, and in the domestic context,.
Suslov expressed confidence, that resist outside only annoying and whet the creators of the US policy, but really “reach out” to them it is possible only from within, the efforts of US and European companies - like this, as it was with the same RUSAL. “The signal will not reach, and the business will be frightened anyway”, - said analyst.
“Everyone will be watching, how to turn the case with my friend Michael”, - sighed in turn Russell.
What prevents “live richer”?
With Rodzyanko I'm on this subject after the conference did not have time to talk. But in the course of the discussion, he pointed out, what, in the view from the outside, between Moscow and Washington is a kind of struggle for, “who can do more, and faster to hurt the Russian economy”, and “Russia has recently pulled ahead”.
Americans view, it hinders the development of our country, which, in his opinion, “I must live in two or three times richer”, than now. However, it is not over yet. “My optimism remains”, - said president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia. I add from myself: me too. And that, whether to sell dollars, I asked my old friend - the young talented Moscow investment banker Alexander Prosviryakova. In his view, US currency is now more logical to buy. It is assumed, that in the foreseeable future it will be more expensive and will end the year “at around 70” rubles per dollar.
