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Attempt number three: Whether Russia will be able to return to the West exported billions

Attempt number three: Whether Russia will be able to return to the West exported billions

The first two "capital amnesty" campaign failed completely, but now the situation has changed in the world, and the Russian leadership to draw conclusions from mishaps

FROM 1 March new stage amnesty for businessmen will be launched in Russia, that could potentially return to capital, illegally bred in the offshore. The corresponding decree was at the forum "Business Russia" has given President Vladimir Putin.

Government asked to prepare all the necessary bills. Amnesty conditions, decided to legalize offshore moguls should become tax resident in Russia and re-register your foreign company in the special administrative regions of Primorye and the Kaliningrad Region. In exchange, the Russian government agreed to release them from the payment of personal income tax for 2019 year, and promise not to prosecute economic crimes, committed when funds are withdrawn.

Another way to receive forgiveness - is to return to the previously derived assets.

Financial homeopathy

initiative is, certainly, necessary and useful: Russian economy, perhaps, more than any other needs the influx of large investments. By the same means, who wants to return President, are our - this is the surplus value, that was created by us, and then after a series of artful manipulation it was suddenly "sacred private property" of the oligarchs and the ordinary millionaires. Of course, ideally, the money should work for the benefit of Russia, and not some other country.

Nevertheless, one might wonder: and what, properly, the effectiveness of the two previous amnesties, which have already taken place? What worked and what did not manage to achieve the state in this direction?

Recall: The first lasted from amnesty 1 July th 2015 to 30 June 2016 of the year; from the second in less than a day: she started 1 March last year and will end with the last day of the winter of 2019.

Alas, it is no exaggeration to say, that both campaigns were completely a failure. The financial results of the first Bank of Russia did not disclose, limit the message about 7200 declarations, filed amnesty applicants. How much money is brought to the country - the regulator modestly. Close experts spoke to the financial community, that business has decided to legalize the least 100 millions of dollars. to understand, as a tiny figure, suffice it to recall, what in 2016 year's withdrawal of capital by the private sector amounted to 15,4 billion, at 2015 m - 56,9 billion, and in 2014 - and at 154,1 billion. And this is only the official data of the Central Bank, ie excluding funds, offshore aristocracy who dragged the country to bypass the regulator.

Amnesty 2018 year on paper looks much better. According to the Finance Minister and First Deputy Prime Minister Anton Siluanov, This campaign showed the rich Russian tax service more 10 billion euros. but, as is known, promise - not to marry. The head of the Federal Tax Service Mikhail said Mishustin, that this money had not been translated into Russian. A Siluanov, Commenting on such a strange result of money-laundering, stated, that no obligation to return the money to offshore amnesty residents did not impose.

According to the minister, business should be interested in the return of funds, since 2019 while continuing to campaign, the authorities intend to grant concessions to foreign firms, owned by Russian citizens.

In this way, two years of efforts and loud statements yet met with only homeopathic results but a lot of loud statements.

failure anatomy

As with most important socio-political processes, in a situation with the Russian offshore amnesties difficult to identify the main factor of failure. Nevertheless, it is clear, that first of all the matter in the wrong approach to the problem.

In fact, Russian authorities are trying to implement a policy of carrots and sticks; but just whip in the hands of Moscow and no. Authorities practically can not do anything billionaires, decided to sail to alternate airports and do not wish to meet with representatives of the Russian state. Tea with polonium and scarf in the shower - not the methods, which can be used though a little mass.

Only institutional solutions are suitable for large-scale problems - it is an axiom. In this Russian impotence it is not connected with the, that in nature there is no way to take over the soft nouveau riche, carry off billions from the country. There is another problem: Russian political elite is closely connected with the offshore aristocracy, but largely it and staffed and therefore doing everything possible, that Moscow did not have access to international mechanisms of recovery of stolen money.

Constantinople wrote, that when ratifying the United Nations Convention against Corruption (UNCAC) at 2006 the Russian authorities have refused to ratify the 20-th article - "Illicit enrichment", 54-th - "Mechanisms for recovery of property through international cooperation in confiscation", and 57th - "Return and disposal of assets". Russia has voluntarily renounced the use of institutional power, based on international law, and now forced to humbly ask the respected people back then, that was brazenly stolen vile and awarded.

it, by the way, clearly visible and the rhetoric of officials. Talk about entrepreneurs, who need to be legalized, underway in the key "Take small poteryashek", they are confused and took billions of dollars not to uncle. the, that these people are economic criminals in the same United States, each of them for a long time to shake his term, - no one remembers.

In the absence of an effective whip carrot and stick policy inevitably turns into a parody ad next Chinese warnings.

Another reason for the failure of both campaigns - their crudity. Both Amnesty prepared hastily and, can say, slap-on Tyapkin. In this regard, we shalturili government lawyers and experts of the Central Bank. More in 2015 in preparation of the first bill the business community is quite easy to understand and clearly marked safety guarantees, who would like to see in the law, and without which, in principle, is not ready to return the money to the country. In particular, entrepreneurs claimed the forgiveness of economic crimes, which were made by them, not only as individuals, but also in the role of managers and employees of companies and firms. It is also proposed to extend the amnesty on intangible assets and liabilities, separately prescribe the exemption from liability for property, which is no longer owned by declarants, but that was the source of their wealth (those most devastated Soviet factories, looted farms and obankrochennye Shipping, with whom began their journey to success effective management and strong business executives).

In fact, representatives of the offshore aristocracy would guarantee, what, pardoning them one corpus delicti, authorities have not put them on other. Instead, officials decided to write documents, meet their own ideas about, how to. The result was so pathetic, that about it preferred not to disclose.

Finally, third reason for failure - the activities of Russian security services. AT 2015 , Putin noted, that for the previous year by the investigating authorities was initiated 200 thousands of criminal cases against employers. Until the courts reached only 46 thousand, in this case more 15 thousands fell apart in court.

It turns out, if you count, that sentence ended only 15% part, - summed up the head of state. - The vast majority of, 83% entrepreneurs, which were criminal cases, fully or partially lost business. That is their popressovali, robbed and released.

In this address to the Federal Assembly, law enforcement officers also became the only category of civil servants, which the president and subjected to overt criticism deployed. Moreover, again because of continuing pressure on business.

To be continued

However, all of the above does not mean, Russia should not try to return the money, stolen from the country. According to the US National Bureau of Economic Research, Russian offshore aristocracy stores abroad about a trillion dollars. More conservative estimates of Russian experts, we are talking about the amount of 300 – 500 billions. Anyway, it's just a lot of money. History knows many examples, when for less bombed the capital of foreign states.

Besides, the current situation is very different from the one, that was still in 2015 year. Now in full force and effect factor of anti-Russian hysteria, that there was virtually no return to the Crimea and who, respectively, I was not taken seriously by the business community. History Oleg Deripaska, who overcame the American Ministry of Finance control over the holding company En +, convincingly demonstrated, that the joke was over. In fact, instead of the threat from the Russian authorities offshore aristocracy received neillyuzorno prospect of losing everything uvezonnoe. So gf UK, a couple of decades successfully turned a blind eye to the antics of the visitors of the oligarchs, Now, following in the wake of the global hegemon, several times during the 2018 second time to inform about the hunt for the "dirty" money foreigners, including Russian citizens. The case has already reached the compilation of lists, persons involved in proposing a threatened seizure of property and assets explain, where they have so much money for a beautiful life.

Of course, at the helm of Britain is horribly incompetent government Theresa May - probably, most senseless since the days of Neville Chamberlain. Soon it will be changed. It is not excluded, the new British authorities again will remove the struggle against "dirty money" in a distant box and try to forget, like a nightmare, allowing the kingdom to continue to receive bonuses from the stolen billions worldwide.

However, the anti-Russian sentiments in the American establishment - is a systemic phenomenon and is unlikely to be reversed in the foreseeable future. In these circumstances, the Russian offshore already beginning to look like a safe haven, where it is convenient to hide from the evil of US tax authorities.

Besides, предложенная Путиным концепция амнистии принципиально отличается от той, что имела место в прошлом году. Если раньше подпольных миллиардеров просто просили показать краденое, то по условиям этого года бизнесу ставится однозначное условие: либо вы становитесь налоговыми резидентами РФ и платите доход с заграничного имущества, либо возвращаете деньги и бизнес в российскую юрисдикцию. Странная благотворительность прошлых лет, looks like, ended. Настало время деловых предложений.

Сыграло положительную роль и то обстоятельство, what, несмотря на любовь наших силовиков к раскулачиванию предпринимателей, ни первая, ни вторая волна деклараций не конвертировались в потоки уголовных дел. В итоге предприниматели средней руки, которые за неимением «крыши» с большими звёздами в погонах не решались поверить государству, теперь могут изменить свою точку зрения.

Whether Russia succeeds on the third try to put on the flow of capital return - will next year. Good, if an attempt to agree on an amicable succeed. And for the nouveau riche, and for ordinary citizens Russia is the most comfortable and safest way to get the money back into the country.

Basically, attempt may fail. Then the government will have to act in a bad way. true, that's another story ...

Victoria Fomenko

Published: lentok Source

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