25 July last year, Vadim Rabinovich (who conducted an active promotion of himself as a candidate for president of Ukraine) Live presents the program of his party "for life". And in the context of this presentation he offered the audience to vote for the, who can be trusted or that direction of party work. As a result, "the Ukrainians offered, to Viktor Medvedchuk headed the direction of the restoration of peace with Russia, the resumption of negotiations with the CIS ".
It was obvious, that "Ukrainians offered" nothing more than a good political technology course, but in fact it was about forming an alliance, which the, it seemed, radically change the political situation in Ukraine. After Viktor Medvedchuk has a reputation as sort of "demiurge" of Ukrainian politics, which the, directly without interfering with the current electoral showdown, is able to exert significant influence on the processes occurring in it. And the image of the "hand of Moscow" (because of its good relations with the Russian leader, until favoritism, never hid), man, to which the Kremlin listen, only adds to the weight.
the, that after a long break, he decided to take a direct part in the election campaign, directly supporting one of the political forces, only pointed to the seriousness of the, and the aforementioned image suggests, that he is able to bring a lot of the votes of pro-Russian voters in a piggy-backed their candidate.
Also very much points to the fact, that it is not so much about supporting a particular Rabinovich, whose chances of reaching the second round were considered very low, and the formation under the auspices of Medvedchuk broad alliance of forces antimaydannyh, able to set the highest goals.
The only noteworthy candidate for a partner in this association was most antimaydannaya ranking political force - the "opposition bloc" (Vadim Rabinovich from which came two years before this). This political structure is almost officially consisted of two on an equal footing owned "shares" Project factions - the so-called "gas industry", close to the oligarch Firtash, leaders were Sergei Lyovochkin, Yuri Boiko,, and "industrialists", behind which is easily guessed Rinat Akhmetov. The frontman of the group were Boris Kolesnikov, Alexander Vilkul and Vadim Novinsky. And recent statements were much more abrupt, than that of a sufficiently faded as a public politician Yury Boiko (Liovochkin generally avoided public activity). But it Boyko was seen as a likely candidate "Oppobloka" in the presidential election and as such ranks fairly high in the presidential ratings.
Against this background, in late August, Vadim Rabinovich made the following statement: "In order to better represent the interests of the south-east of voters, such integration would be a good. But you know, that in every process have de mo ** and candy. So in Oppobloke have de mo ** and candy. De mo ** - it stuck to them corrupt type Liovochkin, Boyko and other gang. And there are other good, decent people, and we would be happy to go with them to the polls. therefore, if de mo ** separate from the candy - this is an interesting proposal. And if not, If the taste of candy mixed with de m **, it turns a single e mo **. Such an association is not ".
The implication was obvious: Rabinovich (and therefore, and Medvedchuk, although even then there was a big question, who then put first) categorically rejects the possibility of an alliance with a group Levochkina - Boyko, but "plain text" offers the union of "decent people", under which, obviously, refers Novinsky, Vilkul etc..
But just a week Rabinovich, Boyko and Lyovochkin made synchronous applications, the meaning of which is the need to reject personal ambitions and past "misunderstandings" in a common cause of success. It was announced the beginning of negotiations, which should have been completed by December, between "Oppoblokom" and "For life" on the nomination of a single candidate, and, generally, "The process has begun".
Of course, I remained skeptical, as "personal ambition" is very often an insurmountable obstacle to such alliances, and it revealed it was before the "deadline", because each of the "koalitsiantov" to the last hopes for a resolution of the situation in their favor. But in this case there were also signs, what Viktor Medvedchuk eventually should become a single candidate, and just as a "compromise", neutral towards all candidates nominal figure.
This is indicated by an unprecedented public relations activity of Viktor Medvedchuk, software interview, articles, etc.. P. Apparent probing public opinion looked quickly placed on many article resource cooperated with Medvedchuk controlled channel "112 Ukraine" political analyst Kirill Ryzhanova, the meaning of which was as follows: Kiev sociological center "Sofia" reported the sensational news: if the opposition will be able to nominate a single candidate presidential elections, which the, relatively speaking, is for "Russia", but "against the US and the IMF", that such a candidate is guaranteed to take place in the second round, along with the leader of electoral sympathies Ukrainians Yulia Tymoshenko. Who will be this one "candidate of the southeast"? Looks like, Viktor Medvedchuk: among the opponents of the regime he now the highest trust rating…
According to Ryzhanova, Medvedchuk offered a pre-election agenda, which is clear and close the, who previously gave voices "regionals" and even the Communists.
"Who will win in the end - Medvedchuk or Tymoshenko? This is how to count. According to the measurements of the center of "Sofia", which is headed by Andrey Ermolaev, one of the few Ukrainian experts, considered impartial, Today Tymoshenko ready to vote 15,9% the electorate.
Scattered candidates from the south-east - Boyko, Moore and Rabinowitz - collect "a circle" around 16,5% Award voters. But, as noted by sociologists, for a single candidate can vote a lot more people - a positive role to play, "unifying" agenda (this postulate is very difficult not to agree. - Ed.). T. it is. victory almost in his pocket Medvedchuk - if, of course, Poroshenko not find an excuse, not to hold elections ".
However, beyond that, something went wrong. first, before publication Ryzhanova, the decision to "go its own way," said the popular young politician Yevgeny Muraev, once with Vadim Rabinovich came out of "Oppobloka" and made him the party "for life". This saw intrigue Poroshenko, seeking to split the electorate antimaydanny, leaped ambitions of the young politician, which in the formed mega-alliance really found himself in the shadows, and even a tactical move - to create a situation, in which the union a greater number of candidates antimaydannyh (Boyko, Rabinovich, Muraeva and at that time had not yet declared their presidential ambitions Vilkul) around consolidating figures Medvedchuk would seem the most advantageous.
A 20 November Vadim Rabinovich announced the signing of an agreement on the establishment of the parliamentary group "The opposition platform - for life". He added, that this is the next step to the "creation of a single major political forces". Co-chairs of this group will be Yuriy Boyko and Vadim Rabinovich. Answering a question about further cooperation with former members of the faction "The opposition bloc", Rabinovich said, that is a normal situation and "it's like a family - someone gone, and someone back, and someone ran again ".
Generally, preferring to "candy", "shit", Rabinovich (and Medvedchuk, We need to understand) together with the "gas workers' group long before the deadline simply thrown from the unification process group" manufacturers " (Akhmetov). The question of a presidential candidate from the new alliance decided very quickly: a few days later, Vadim Rabinovich said, that in a situation of conflict in the Ukrainian Orthodoxy he, as a Jew by birth and faith, He can not claim the post of head of the Ukrainian state.
Naturally, This was followed by mutual accusations and disassembly, "Rabinovich someone who" ... "the fifth column of power", and then nominate their candidates - predictably Yuriy Boiko and Alexander Vilkul. At the same time Moscow clearly demonstrated its sympathy, first through the officious tone of Russian media, and then the introduction of sanctions against the leaders of almost all "Akhmeta" part Oppobloka (and he Rinat Akhmetov in the sanctions list is not ranked). Many see in this not so much the punishment of specific politicians, as a clear signal to the pro-Russian electorate.
And, as it turned out, "Cracks" in the opposition camp have spread farther. Even before the nomination of Yuriy Boyko informed journalist Dmitry Dzhangirov (until recently, was considered close to Medvedchuk) reported, that the first unification congress "opposition platform - For Life!"Scheduled for 10 January, then - at 16 January, but both times was postponed. reasons, According to the journalist, some:
– disputes over quotas between groups of party financing Boyko - Levochkina and Rabinowitz - Medvedchuk;
– Yuri Boiko and Sergei Lyovochkin not want, to the congress was attended by Viktor Medvedchuk;
– party "opposition platform - For Life!"I have not yet been registered with the Ministry of Justice (the creation of the party was announced 14 December 2018 of the year).
"The stumbling block was the statement by one of the parties present at the congress Viktor Medvedchuk, against which categorically rejected by Yuri Boiko and Sergei Lyovochkin ", - said the "Internet" another source. Medvedchuk and his party colleague MP Vadim Rabinovich in response issued an ultimatum. "In this case, no one delegate from the platform “For a life” on is not Congress', - said the source.
"Without them, Yuri Boiko and Sergei Lyovochkin simply there is not enough people. There is a fundamental conflict "shareholders" political project. Now it becomes clear, that no real political union and ideological unity in the ranks of the "platform" does not exist. Verkhovod personal ambitions "shareholders", having, apparently, fundamentally different plans for the project ", - said the informant "Observer".
Really, Congress did not take place, and on the nomination of Yuriy Boyko was not Viktor Medvedchuk, nor Vadim Rabinovich. Last, true, According to available information, ill, and immediately after the event was followed by a few gestures, designed to show the preservation of the unity, despite the fact that Rabinovich found it necessary to note: "To defeat this power to unite and become over their personal ambitions. And we reaffirm our actions (and again about overcoming personal ambitions - the hint is obvious. - Ed.)». The site "Ukrainian choice" also continues to publish articles in support of Yury Boiko, but it is easy to see, that there are (as well as in the ongoing active Facebook Vadim Rabinovich) in the background.
Announced and scheduled for 29 January congress of the party "for life", which will be announced to support the candidacy of Yuriy Boyko, but what is significant, the question of unification (more precisely, accession Boyko and his comrades) and appropriate renaming postponed to a later date. Speaking about the causes of the conflict, It can not be denied, that "financial" (in the broadest sense) questions can anyone quarrel.
But in this case,, obviously, the key is the question of the presence of Victor Medvedchuk at the Congress. T. it is. Boyko and Lyovochkin decided politically to dissociate himself from the leader of the "Ukrainian choice", not pedaling their alliance with him, but it is possible - simply provoke a break. obviously, Medvedchuk for them is not the "asset", which can bring additional support. But recall: in the "electoral" policy of Viktor Medvedchuk back, "I agree" to enter the team was still a presidential candidate Vadim Rabinovich. As a result, Rabinovich is not a candidate and a team of, who agreed to support, It is on the "Bird rights".
This is not ruled out, that Medvedchuk with Rabinovich simply decided not to formalize the "parting" with the group Boyko - Liovochkin before the presidential election, not to look ordinary dissenters. Yes and gee alyyans not "carved in Gran». He suddenly appeared six months ago, and in the tradition of Ukrainian politics can just disappear, even more so, that appears on its face "boykovtsy" much more interested in Rabinovitch, than Medvedchuk.
In this way, we can say a complete fiasco "project Medvedchuk" (for which many saw the "hand of Moscow"), which is entrusted with such hope and that, it seemed, It started very promisingly. As a result, "antimaydanny" sector was completely chopped, mired in mutual squabbles and accusations, and at their base voters against this background there is a strong desire to remain 31 house March (what sort of "synergy", rather - on the contrary).
However, were not these overly optimistic expectations initially? Peak "power" Victor Medvedchuk occurred in the first half of the "zero", when he was "sacred" in the post as head of the late Leonid Kuchma's administration (then he became closely acquainted with Vladimir Putin and held a similar position in the Kremlin, Dmitry Medvedev).
is he, having all administrative levers, unable to organize opposition to the first Maidan, and 2006 the project created by him "wrong" could not overcome the five percent barrier at the parliamentary elections. Since then, he probably avoided "electoral activity", More image forming backstage "demiurge".
However, his only real "asset" had consistently exhibited favor from Moscow, signals, that in Ukraine the Kremlin trusts only him. But, maybe, Only "high trust" is not enough for success. So the Kremlin, perhaps, time to think, that in order to get the result may not be enough to once again "move the bed".
true, one can not but voice and "conspiratorial" version. After all, from the very beginning of the project to understand and even recognized, that the chances of a "complete success" virtually no, but rather it is a "preview" before the parliamentary elections, here's where you need to create the most powerful faction mega-party South-East, which would have sufficient resources, to protect its interests and to have a real impact on the course held, up to the creation of a "coalition of national reconciliation and unity" with new president.
On the other hand, more than clearly: Poroshenko for Russia - "the worst of evils". But "common place", that perfect opponent in the second round was "antimaydanny candidate" for him. Him, according to the polls, he confidently wins, while against the other has very little chance. So, can, and decided he did not get the chance to give, moving the unification process after the presidential elections?
Dmitry Slavskii
