The photo: press service of the Russian Defense Ministry
US President Donald Trump unveils new state missile defense strategy. In response, the Russian Foreign Ministry warned, that its implementation will lead to an arms race in space. But Trump insists: strategy is extremely defensive. A network of space sensors will allow to respond to hypersonic weapons, which the Russian president boasted last year. Vladimir Putin proudly spoke about the successful test of the Avangard missile system, which is already in 2019 year will go into service with the troops. What to expect from Avangard on both sides, sorted out the correspondent of RTVI Sergey Morozov.
It is not often that Vladimir Putin personally launches rockets - this is an exceptional case: Russia first showed (although, basically, did not show, because everything is secret) miracle rocket "Avangard". Little of, that she reaches speed 27 Makhov (9 km / s), so she also maneuvers at hypersonic speed.
The rocket was launched at the Dombarovsky range, but landed at the Kura training ground in Kamchatka. But the landing was not shown to anyone. Putin claims, that militarily Russia has made a leap.
Vladimir Putin, President of Russia
“The new Avangard system is invulnerable to today's and future missile defense systems of a potential enemy. This is a great success and a great victory "
Social network, sleeping on christmas, for such an occasion woke up. We immediately found satellite images of the landfill three hours before launch: fresh wheel tracks are visible. No landing images found. Many comments, someone panics, mostly - do not believe.
The photo: Planet Labs
"Avangard" - this is not a rocket (no engine), it is rather a gliding warhead, which is planted on an old UR100-N UTTH rocket. RTVI sorted out together with the expert of the Russian Council on International Affairs Dmitry Stefanovich, how does it fly in theory, and most importantly, this apparatus maneuvers.
Dmitriy, and you yourself believe that, what is such a rocket (or the "Vanguard" block) exist?
Yes, of course. If development started six months ago and we were told, that now it flies perfectly, then it would be one conversation. But since this project is already many years old, I do not doubt it at all.
Let's analyze it in stages: how the "Avangard" flies. The rocket starts - the steps fly off, conditionally, separation takes place in space. At the edge of the atmosphere, it starts to jump. Maneuvers in different axes.
I would also add, that an ordinary rocket flies higher: high ballistic trajectory. Planning warhead somewhere in the border of the atmosphere (80-110 km) starts to make maneuvers. He may be outside the atmosphere.
27 Makhov "Avangard", of course, develops, otherwise it won't go out into space, but the question, how much does he fly at this speed.
Dmitry Stefanovich, expert of the Russian Council on International Affairs: «27 Makhov at the stage of entry into the atmosphere - they can be. This is a common characteristic. But, towhen he entered the atmosphere, his speed is probably changing. Physics can't be fooled. Furthermore, perhaps, that the Avangard itself passes most of its trajectory outside the atmosphere and, eg, separates for 500-1000 km to the goal. FROMaccordingly, its trajectory is flatter. That is, it flies, there is a separation and then he makes some maneuvers. Or, as an option, he separated and, to improve accuracy and, can, pick up speed (although rather lose) just before approaching the target, makes another small slide, specifies its location, perhaps, committ some additional maneuvers and arrives at the target. Here is any block, who flies like this, arrives at a much faster speed. There speeds of order 5-6-7 kilometers per second. Here rather (we don't know for sure) 2-3-4 km per second ".
This is the whole trick: how Avangard will be able to bypass enemy anti-missile systems. It turns into a burning ball, plasma outside - no signals pass through it, giving him a command from Earth will not work.
Dmitry Stefanovich, expert of the Russian Council on International Affairs: "My own theory, that in the case of "Vanguard" some of the maneuvers are set at the start. This is, in principle, a logical and even elegant solution.. There is an option, that in the future they will have their own engines and then we will see a completely different picture ".
so, Dmitry's version: "Vanguard" maneuvers at speeds, smaller, than conventional warheads, and its flight is programmed in advance.
RTVI discussed with another expert - Andrey Gorbachevsky, does Avangard really have more chances, than all predecessors.
Andrey Gorbachevsky, former head of the sector, Scientific Research Institute of Aviation Systems: "Ballistic missile, old, Soviet. ABOUTwas not intended, that six nuclear units were installed there, everyone flew to their target. Now they just took these bombs out of the rocket and put one "Vanguard" instead. Shooting down six warheads is much more difficult, than one maneuvering. This solution is very ineffective».
The photo: US Department of Defense
Really, now the American missile defense system is not adapted to shoot down the Avangard, but it does not mean, that he is not vulnerable in principle.
Andrey Gorbachevsky, former head of the sector, Scientific Research Institute of Aviation Systems: “With such a strong heat, it glows so strongly (especially in the infrared), what if we put an infrared camera on the anti-missile, then the pointing accuracy will increase many times. We make it easier for the enemy to build anti-missiles».
But most importantly, says expert, that the current Russian missiles pose insurmountable tasks for America.
Andrey Gorbachevsky, former head of the sector, Scientific Research Institute of Aviation Systems: “Until now, Americans honestly report to their population, that it is impossible to shoot down a massive volley ".
The RTVI film crew meets expert Konstantin Sivkov at a meeting in the Council of Veterans. He considers, that Avangard is now a response to threats, which have not yet appeared, but in the future there will certainly appear.
Konstantin Sivkov, Deputy President of the Russian Academy of Missile and Artillery Sciences for Information Policy: "Advanced US missile defense systems, which may enter service in the distant future, At first, space-based. They can pose a threat to our intercontinental ballistic missiles. And then this block "Vanguard" will play a role. It's about two, may be, three decades. Like this. Not less".
Konstantin Sivkov believes, that the Vanguard can sharply maneuver at great speeds - this is the meaning of advanced developments. He considers, that at current levels of armaments, the United States and Russia can no longer guaranteed to destroy each other, which means that even more terrible types of weapons are needed to deter.
Konstantin Sivkov: “Sarmat is also a special rocket. It can have not only a cassette warhead with hypersonic units, but also a monoblock warhead, especially large caliber of several tens of megatons. And it may only make sense to initiate geophysical processes: earthquakes, tsunami, initiation of the explosion of a supervolcano ".
The development of the Avangard complex is not only possible - such work was carried out for many years in the Soviet Union, - says Mark Solonin (formerly an aeronautical design engineer).
Mark Solonin, aeronautical design engineer: “There was a Spiral system in the Soviet Union, and her descent vehicle was called in the jargon "bast shoe". He literally looked like a village bast shoe (flat structure with a spout and two small wings). AND at these speeds you can really move left and right. I figured, what such a thing, which flies at speed 5-7 Makhov (about 27 I do not speak), able to move with the curvature of the trajectory when overloaded 10, and this is a very big overload. The turning radius will be 25-30 km, that is, it's like driving along the Moscow ring road. It is about a very flat, curvature of the trajectory almost imperceptible to the eye ".
The photo: press service of the Russian Defense Ministry
Mark Solonin believes, that Avangard does not give Russia any military advantages, but explains, why did they decide to develop it.
Mark Solonin, aeronautical design engineer: “The last 50-60 years, dozens of deliberately failed projects have been developed. A lot of money was spent on them, huge teams worked. It drove progress. We started to draw maneuverable blocks. In particular, Tupolev design bureau painted, true, did not launch anything. There was a grandiose program "Spiral", to which from 1964 by 1976 years spent huge amounts of money, until Defense Minister Ustinov wrote a resolution, According to the legend —"Stop doing science fiction". There is nothing unique about, that money is being spent on something extremely interesting, but no practical military application. A few words about the Avangard complex. If we have steering machines working there, some control system issues commands, so, error accumulates. There is a chance of failure. We go wrong, where to go, but to an empty place. It's all incredibly complicated. In an official statement, which was issued by the Ministry of Defense, there is not a single word about, where did it go. Nobody said anything at all ".
If Avangard, reportedly, nevertheless successfully flew to the Kura training ground, then most likely his flight was tracked in the USA. Cobra Dane radar in Alaska, how to find, was specially built to observe, what lands in Kamchatka. And the first success of "Avangard" - he was noticed by Trump: in the new Strategy for the development of the missile defense system, which the President of the United States presented the day before, talks about the test that took place in Russia.
Donald Trump, President of the U.S.A: “Russia considers the US and NATO to be the main threat to its revisionist geopolitical ambitions and regularly conducts simulated nuclear strikes on US soil.. Russian leaders say, that they have a new class of missiles, hypersonic gliding units, who move and maneuver at speeds above Mach five in the atmosphere or at its border ".
In this way, we quickly learned the results of American observations of the Russian launch - maneuvering at speed 5 Makhov. And it's already clear, that the new Russian weapon Trump will try to use, to justify your defense spending. So Avangard became a New Year's gift not only for Russians.
