Who is the "aggressor" here?: Russia and Belarus almost completely control the "square" diesel fuel market
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has denied reports that, that his country supplies Ukraine with diesel fuel, which is then used for military purposes. According to Lukashenka, for this, diesel fuel is used directly from Russia itself.
“Recently we have been accused, that we fill tanks (Ukrainian, - ca.. order.) diesel fuel. I am instructed to deal, what there is diesel fuel. When I was informed (I just read it for the second time) — in the same place all Russian diesel fuel. And the Russians deliver, constantly increasing the volumes of these deliveries - gasoline and diesel fuel, - to Ukraine. So how is it?.. And who runs these tanks?», - he said, noting, that Belarusian volumes of deliveries to the Ukrainian market are declining.
Lukashenka did not specify, who exactly reproaches Belarus for supplying oil products to Ukraine. maybe, talking about, that at the end of last year, the Russian leadership decided not to supply dark oil products to its neighbors until 2020 of the year. This step was explained by, that Belarus already produces enough oil products for its own needs from processed Russian raw materials, and finished petroleum products are re-exported, the same Ukraine. A number of media then suggested, what Russia does not want, that these products be used for military purposes.
18 January, Ukrainian Deputy Minister for Temporarily Occupied Territories and Internally Displaced Persons Georgiy Tuka said, that Ukraine really buys Russian oil and oil products through Belarus.
“We don’t have oil - this is a military secret? No. We have to buy it, we have to buy a lot of fuel, used by the whole country, near Belarus, which, absolutely of course, produces it from Russian oil, but it's good for us. What alternative do we have - to buy European oil. Will we pull European fuel?' he asked a question.
But Alexander Grigoryevich said, that Ukrainian tanks are being fueled directly from Russia, not from Belarus. Who is right?
As it turns out, both speakers are right in this situation. There is no centralized database on the supply of petroleum products from Russia, but according to experts and consulting agencies (UPECO, A-95), Russia and Belarus account for almost 40% Ukrainian market. This number fluctuates depending on various factors., but recently the ratio has changed in favor of Russia. According to the results 9 months 2018 year, the share of Belarusian manufacturers decreased from 43% to 35%, and Russian, in front of, grew up with 28 to 37%.
According to available information, from 2016 Rosneft was the main Russian supplier of diesel fuel to Ukraine. All deliveries went through the PrykarpatZapadTrans pipeline through the Swiss Proton Energy of the Israeli businessman Nisan Moiseev. In October 2017 the company entered into a ten-year contract for the export of 30-50 million. tons of diesel fuel with ITC Industry Trading Company SA. (Switzerland), which is headed by the owner of the only oil product pipeline in Ukraine, German citizen Anatoly Shefer.
In September 2017 of the year, Gazprom neftekhim Salavat LLC began to supply diesel fuel to Ukraine. Deliveries of Gazprom diesel to Ukraine are carried out by rail.
According to the consulting group A-95, through the oil product pipeline "PrikarpatZapadTrans" for 9 months of 2018 was delivered 1734 thousand. tonnes, What's on 46% (546 thousand tons) more, than in the same period 2017 of the year. Of this volume, through the pipeline terminals on the territory of Ukraine, 1462 thousand tons, and through the terminal in Gomel (Belarus) only - 272 thousand tons. Yet 127,4 thousand tons of diesel fuel were delivered by rail through the Kharkiv region.
true, Russian companies are not allowed directly to deliveries for the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine due to the relevant ban from Kyiv. But in reality it is hardly possible to clearly distinguish, what fuel goes to peaceful needs, and which one - for the military.
Some attempts to limit the supply of diesel from Russia to Ukraine were made in our country. From september 2015 all suppliers must obtain permission from the FSTEC (Federal Service for Technical and Export Control) for the export of diesel fuel to Ukraine. Then Interfax-Ukraine reported, that the purpose of the restrictions declared by the Russian state bodies is to prevent the use of Russian fuel by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Therefore, periodically there were interruptions in Russian supplies. for example, in summer 2015 of the year, September to December 2016, in February 2018.
But in the end, the sale of oil products to Ukraine always resumed.. Moreover, there is no intergovernmental agreement between Russia and Ukraine on the supply of petroleum products., and business entities sell, "based on economic feasibility".
And what the experts say, Ukraine is one of the most attractive markets in terms of supply efficiency. There is almost no own oil refining, and the Ukrainian market is premium for Russian suppliers. Therefore, the unwillingness to supply oil products to Belarus is explained by many not by the fact, that Moscow does not want re-export to Ukraine for some ideological reasons, but simply because, that Russian business wants to supply diesel fuel there without intermediaries.
Ukraine is also profitable to buy diesel fuel in Russia. During periods of interruption of supplies, it was necessary to increase purchases from Lithuania and Poland, and it came out at least 20% expensive, than the northern neighbors.
Some Ukrainian experts claim, that the share of Russian fuel in the Ukrainian market is even larger 40%. for example, Yuriy Korolchuk, an expert at the Kyiv Institute for Energy Strategies, names the figure in 65% and believes, that the cessation of supplies would be a catastrophic blow for the Ukrainian market.
At the end of last year, the Ukrainian channel TSN aired a story about the dependence of the “square” on Russian energy resources.. After all, if we take into account, that Belarusian oil products are also produced from Russian raw materials, Russia accounts for 80% Ukrainian consumption.
“Solar oil of Russian origin is also used to refuel the equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and all farmers, therefore, in the event of any aggravation, Russia will automatically stop the supply of energy resources”, - the story says.
“If large-scale operations begin, they will restrict all deliveries to us. Putin, I know him personally and, so to speak, environment, they will stop at nothing", - said in an interview the former head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine Mykola Malomuzh.
But for now, according to statistics, Russian deliveries not only do not overlap, but also increase. Director General of the Institute of Regional Problems Dmitry Zhuravlev considers, that this is because, that we put the interests of business much higher than the interests of the state.
- It happened, that a large number of Soviet oil refineries were built in Belarus. Therefore, the export of petroleum products is the main type of export of today's Belarus. But at the same time, a very limited number of countries buy Belarusian diesel fuel.. Mostly Germans, and for further processing, not for use. Ukraine is one of the few countries, which is ready to buy our, and Belarusian diesel fuel directly for use.
So when it comes to business, our and Belarusian entrepreneurs simply do not have a very large choice, because the quality of our diesel fuel is lower, than in Europe. And even if it was high, Europeans would hardly let us into their market so easily. That's why we supply crude oil to the West, instead of gasoline and diesel. At first, we have low efficiency, and secondly, we are simply not allowed to enter Europe with our diesel fuel.
In this situation, deliveries to Ukraine arise.. It `s that, What did Vladimir Putin say?, when he pointed out, that we are almost at war, and our turnover is growing. This is the economic necessity of our underdeveloped complex of oil refining and production of petroleum products..
"SP": — Do our business really need these supplies??
— We have an acute problem with oil products. We increase their domestic prices, but at the same time we produce quite a lot of them. The excess has to go somewhere., here it is being sold to Ukraine.
Another question is, Is it right to put the interests of business above the public interest?? Probably, no. But in order, to stop these deliveries, government should intervene. If the state, eg, tell, what all, who supplies oil products to Ukraine, have to pay 500% excise or import duties, deliveries will stop immediately. But the state, despite their statements, don't make such tough decisions..
After all, no one secretly transports this diesel fuel to Ukraine at night in a bucket. She rides open, formally and in large quantities. The only question is, what is the priority - the interests of business or the state.
"SP": - That is, theoretically, in the event of an aggravation of the situation in eastern Ukraine, Russia could stop such supplies?
- And not only in case of exacerbation. This can be done at any time. There just needs to be an appropriate political decision, but he is not.
by the way, interesting, in the event of such a decision, gasoline prices in Russia would increase or fall? В рыночной логике цены должны были бы снизиться из-за переизбытка предложения. Но в логике нашего бизнеса они могли бы, conversely, вырасти, так как предприятия решили бы компенсировать свои потери путем повышения внутренних цен для потребителей, как они всегда делают.
