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Kuriles: Lavrov trap name

Kuriles: Lavrov trap name

Often asked, why the problem of ownership of the Habomai Islands, Shikotan, Kunashir and Iturup are in the spotlight right now? Answer, to my mind, obvious: Japan is the only G7 country, with which Russia can conduct a full-fledged dialogue, without touching questions, who made her an outcast in the civilized world.

Japanese, in fact, little concern about Russia's policy towards Ukraine, Syria, Europe and even USA. As part of solidarity with the allies, they react to this policy at a minimum. For the Japanese, their own problems are still more important.. And the growing isolation of Russia allows them to hope for a little more concessions from her side precisely on these issues..

From my side, Russia follows a similar logic. Suffice it to say, that next week the President of Russia will meet with the Prime Minister of Japan for the 25th time in the past five years.

Another question, will such close communication lead to a breakthrough in solving the problem of the South Kuriles. I've always had big doubts about this.. Today, hot on the heels of negotiations between the foreign ministers of Russia and Japan, they just got stronger. The key to understanding the situation in the statement of the Russian Foreign Minister, which I will give in full:

“Willingness to work on the basis of a declaration 1956 of the year (assuming the transfer of the islands of Habomai and Shikotan to Japan after the signing of a peace treaty), means, first of all, the immutability of the very first step - the recognition by Japan of the results of the Second World War in full, including Russia's sovereignty over all the islands of the South Kuril chain".

From the point of view of diplomatic skill, this statement can be rated much higher., than in terms of morality. Indeed, try not to recognize the results of World War II and be known as revanchists, with whom there is nothing to talk about. But the trap set in the statement of the chief Russian diplomat is that, what, recognizing the results of the Second World War in the wording proposed by Russia, Japan will actually abandon its hard-won legal position, according to which the islands, for which she claims, belong to her by right.

From an equal party in the negotiations, Japan will instantly turn into a petitioner, forced to expect at least some concessions from Russia out of mercy and ready to pay the highest possible price for them. I do not think, that the Japanese will fall into this trap. They will look for the right answer.. And they will most likely find it.. Will he please Russia, unknown.

Georgy Kunadze

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