For many years, Libya, split by a civil war, can only be saved by the intervention of Russia and President Vladimir Putin personally.. This was stated by representatives of one of the two main forces in the country – Libyan National Army, controlling the eastern regions of the state, writes Alexander Gostev on the website "Radio "Svoboda".". At the same time, the Russian military and various PMCs, associated with the Kremlin and Russian state-owned oil companies, have been operating in Libya for a long time.
After being overthrown in 2011 year of the regime of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, a war broke out between the diverse forces of the rebels, once united front. At least dual power reigns in Libya now. The main parties to the conflict, opposing each other with the support of various temporary allies in 2018 year, this:
– Libyan House of Representatives (Majlis) – formerly multinationally recognized parliament, elected 2014 year, also known as "government in Tobruk". He controls vast areas of the east, south and center of the country. It is he who is supported by the current National Army of Libya, led by the most famous and influential Libyan military and political figure now. – Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar.
– Government of National Unity in the capital Tripoli, led by the Presidential Council, led by Prime Minister Faiz Sarraj. This authority was created in 2016 year with the support of the UN Security Council.
Besides, a huge number of other medium and small groups and associations operate in Libya, of which the largest are the "Misurata Brigades", "Zintan Brigades" and terrorists from the "Islamic State", infiltrated into the country 2014 year and always performing independently.
Parliament in Tobruk in summer 2018 year did not fight with the government in Tripoli. Allied semi-autonomous Libyan National Army, main fighting force, and its commander, Field Marshal Haftar, instead focused mainly on fighting hard against ISIS and other jihadists in different provinces.
8 On August 19, a representative of the National Army of Libya, Brigadier General Ahmed al-Mismari, in an interview with the Russian state agency RIA Novosti" expressed the official position of his superiors – that the resolution of the complicated Libyan crisis is impossible without the intervention of Moscow and Russian President Vladimir Putin personally and "the removal of other foreign players from the Libyan arena. for example, Turkey, Qatar, directly – Italy":
"Russia and Libya have a long military relationship. All weapons of the current Libyan army – Russian, our military doctrine also has Eastern roots… Almost all Libyan officers were trained in Russia. Contracts signed in the field of military-technical cooperation, which we have tried to revive in recent years, however, we face a huge problem – It's a UN arms embargo.", – emphasized General al-Mismari, adding, that the commanders are already regularly in touch with the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense.
Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar has made several trips to Moscow over the past few years, where he met with Sergei Shoigu, Sergei Lavrov and Nikolai Patrushev. In January 2017 years Haftar even boarded the Russian aircraft carrier "Admiral Kuznetsov", which approached the coast of Libya after the completion of the military campaign to the coast of Syria. On the ship, Haftar held video talks with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, the result of which was the readiness of Russia in the future to supply the field marshal with weapons worth two billion dollars.
On the situation in Libya and, why suddenly the authorities in Tobruk directly turned to Vladimir Putin with a request for help, political scientist-orientalist Kirill Semenov argues:
– Field Marshal Haftar and his people themselves came to this idea, ask Putin for help? Or has Moscow been pushing them towards this lately??
– This is not the first time, when the authorities in Tobruk, who are affiliated, so to speak, with Field Marshal Haftar, tried to woo Moscow, including receiving military assistance from her. Actually, Moscow tends to maintain relations with the two sides of the Libyan conflict (although there are more of them, but with two main) – and with the Government of National Unity in Tripoli, and, respectively, with Haftar. Although Haftar often tries to position himself as a kind of conductor of Moscow's interests in the region. Which sometimes even causes some misunderstanding in Tripoli – after some statements by Haftar or his administration, they demand explanations from Moscow.
– The example of the Kremlin's rescue of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was infectious?
– Yes, of course! Haftar would very much like to count on this, because he has no strength, to turn the tide and win the final victory. The only thing, what can he expect, so this is for external interference. As we see in this statement of the representative of the Libyan National Army – he complains, that all external forces help the opponents in Tripoli – Italy, Turkey, Qatar. But it should be noted, that Khalifa Haftar himself is also mainly supported by external support – primarily from the UAE, who provide him with aviation. He has their light aircraft, and UAE drones are located at its bases. And Egypt periodically supports it with its aviation. Yes, and France partly helps Haftar. It's enough, to suppress a small enemy grouping of a thousand fighters, such as the Islamist "Dern Defense Council", How did he manage recently?. But this support is not enough., to deal with such a strong group, eg, as "Misurata Brigades". In general, there are now obvious conflicts of interests between some Western countries in Libya., primarily France and Italy. Italy supports government in Tripoli and many other factions, even such as the Misurata Brigades or the Zintan Brigades.
In general, the government in Tobruk, along with Haftar, which is now counting on Russia, an interesting journey – from completely legitimate power to actually turning into rebels, what they really are today in terms of international norms. After the election, which took place in 2014 year, they became a real parliament – although in reality a very small percentage of Libyans participated in them, they could not be considered completely legitimate. This is government, rather, that House of Representatives, Majlis, who formed the government in Tobruk and which was supported by Haftar, was elected by an absolute minority, And then a little time limit, assigned to this government and its main representative Haftar in order to, to play out the "Egyptian scenario" and become a military dictator like Al-Sisi in Egypt, was exhausted. He failed to quickly seize all power in the country, failed to defeat their opponents, who were all considered, in his opinion, radical Islamists.
Government in Tobruk together with Haftar, which is now counting on Russia, an interesting journey
AND, respectively, The West came to the conclusion, that it would be time to restore at least some order in Libya: so that finally oil can be pumped out of it normally and to block the terrifying transit of illegal migrants, refugees from Africa. And so the parties, at least for a while, came to the signing of the Sherat agreements, which were signed in December 2015 years in Morocco. Since then, Libya has developed such, least, dualism.
– That is, there are no special ideological contradictions between Tripoli and Tobruk? It's just a power struggle?
– There are some ideological conflicts, but they, of course, are secondary. Many powers, who support Haftar, that's what they focus on. It is customary to consider Khalifa Haftar a secular military man, who allegedly advocates a secular secular Libya. But a third of its units are made up of local Madkhali Salafists., targeting Saudi Arabia (i.e. "legitimate Salafists", not these «official terrorists»). And they support Haftar solely because, that he is fighting against the "Muslim Brotherhood", against political Islam, which they also do not accept.
Many groups in Libya have long forgotten about religion and ideology and simply formed as a coalition of various regional forces.. In the same "Misurata Brigades" there are still different opinions regarding ideological. But still they are all – the regional forces, and for them, of course, much more important are the issues of access to resources, money, to oil revenues. This is much more important, than the struggle on the ideological front. And we see, like different factions, who were previously enemies, now, with the help of Italy, they enter into a dialogue and find a common language.
– How actively Russia is now involved in all events, that have been taking place in Libya in recent years? Moscow does not seem to supply weapons, but heals the wounded, aircraft carriers are calling…
– As for weapons, then right, of course, we can't say, what supplies. known, that the UAE authorities bought a small number of Mi-24 helicopters for Haftar from Belarus and handed it over to the army. Speak and write, Nevertheless, that Russian PMCs in Libya in the east were seen. But they were allegedly engaged exclusively in the protection and demining of the cement, concrete or some other factory in Benghazi…Generally, there is already a Russian presence in eastern Libya. Russian military mission should be in Tobruk, through which it is coordinated, among other things, the dispatch of fighters of Russian PMCs there.
As for western Libya, then there, under the government in Tripoli, Russian representatives are also active. There is Lev Dengov, 34-summer businessman, representing the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the State Duma. He is very active. Yes, a Russian aircraft carrier sailed east, and he was visited by Haftar. But we must not forget, that some fighters from the Misurata Brigades group, who are considered to be Islamists, also visited Moscow, after they played a decisive role in defeating ISIS. It was they who stormed the capital of the "Islamic state" in Libya, Sirte city. The Kremlin is very diversified in its contacts.
– We recently talked about the war in Yemen and about a very similar request from the Houthi rebels there to Putin. And I asked you a question – how much in many states of the Middle East and in general the large Arab world remember, first military, it is important, about former ties with the Soviet Union? And so they transfer their nostalgia to today's Russia? In Libya, this scheme works?
– Of course, there are similarities. Many officers, and Libyan, and Yemeni, and others, studied in the USSR. There are memories of the Soviet Union, Yes, as a "center of power in the fight against world imperialism and the United States". Now, of course, they no longer play a very important role, however, in order to establish a dialogue, for building contacts they are important and, naturally, help in many cases. Yes, they remember about the "Russian presence", but I wouldn't say, that this factor can be put in the foreground. probably, and in Moscow, one of the decisive conditions for choosing a side in conflicts, he, which should be supported, – is the presence in a given army or grouping of officers, students in the USSR.
– Who are the main opponents of the authorities in Tobruk and the Libyan National Army? After all, in Libya, except for this confrontation "Tripoli-Tobruk", there are many diverse groups, often just armed gangs, seized some piece of territory. What is the situation now?
– At first, the Libyan National Army itself is not a coherent structure. There is a regular component – it's somewhere 7 thousand fighters, and there is an irregular component – tribal groups, all sorts of Salafis, and there are more, 12–15 thousand. They control all power in the regions of Eastern and Central Libya, many areas. At the same time, Haftar's opponents are even less united, but nonetheless, they all, anyway, trying to operate under the umbrella of the Sarraj Government of National Unity. After all, hiding behind its legitimacy, they themselves become legitimate, unlike the Libyan National Army.
Opponents of Haftar – this is the "Misrata Brigades", one of the most important players on the Libyan political scene. These are the Deterrence Force Brigades., who obey Tripoli, – actual police force, playing a big role in supporting the Government of National Unity. And "Zintan Brigades", this is the most interesting group. She initially supported Haftar. She fought with the authorities in Tripoli and with the "Misurata Brigades" for the capital's airport. But then gradually they began to move away from the alliance with Haftar and now, in fact, became an independent group. At the same time, some of its fighters actually still support the Saraj Government of National Unity.
Yes, in Libya, a whole kaleidoscope of groups! for example, any group supports, let us say, Saraja, his Government of National Unity, but she will never fight, eg, against the National Army of Libya, Field Marshal Haftar. Or, eg, some group can support Haftar, and she will fight terrorist structures like the Islamic State, but won't fight for anything, eg, v. Government of National Unity. Each group can at any time, even from the National Army of Libya, run across to the other side.
– there is an opinion, that the fall of Muammar Gaddafi's regime 7 years ago affected half of Africa. That the remaining out of work Libyan military, many of whom became adherents of the ideas of radical jihad, and Libyan weapons spread over so many states around, all the way to Nigeria, South Sudan and Western Sahara. It's true?
– Naturally, events in Libya have affected the entire region of the African Sahel. Tuareg, who initially supported Gaddafi, from Libya are returning to their places of permanent residence, already equipped with weapons, equipment, and start their own military conflicts. This was especially noticeable during the war in Mali., eg, where after 2011 many Libyan Tuareg left. They staged their own revolution there and even tried to create their own state "Azavad". by the way, there is also a reverse process – many armed groups, who acted, eg, in Chad or Sudan, conversely, move to Libya! And now they are fighting there on the side of Haftar as mercenaries. He definitely had two Sudanese groups and one group from Chad on his side., – says Kirill Semenov.