"Всякому, who doubts, that Russia will try to fill in Europe any political vacuum, which arise from the US withdrawal, достаточно взглянуть на Балканы", – wrote in an article inForeign Policy Vera Mironova (a visiting scientist with the Department of Economics, Harvard University) and Bogdan Zavadevich (Researcher at the Institute for East and Southeast Europe, the Leibniz, Regensburg, Germany). According to the authors, Kremlin during the impact of operations focuses on Bosnia and Herzegovina.
As a part of Bosnia and Herzegovina – two administrative education: Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republika Srpska. "Политика России состоит в том, to encourage the second separative instincts. This includes such, it would seem, harmless effort, as the support of the Serbian Orthodox Church, которого придерживается население Республики Сербской", – referred to in Article.
"Однако самое активное сотрудничество между боснийскими сербами и Россией идет по такому каналу, как силы безопасности Республики Сербской", – newspaper writes, Recalling, Republika Srpska does not have the right to have its own army, but it has its police.
"В 2016 year, during the official visit of the Russian delegation in the bath Luka, the main topic of the talks was to establish a partnership between the Republic of Serbia and Russian police on issues, as an intelligence-gathering, the fight against terrorism and the fight against cybercrime. Republika Srpska has also agreed to host the Russian police trainers and Serbian special forces to direct employees to Moscow for training. Since then, Russian intelligence officers (former FSB) часто читают лекции и учебные курсы в полицейской академии Республики Сербской и на факультете исследований проблем безопасности Баня-Лукского университета", – referred to in Article.
"Тем временем, under the pretext of combating terrorism, Republika Srpska has recently strengthened its police force methods, like blatant militarization, иногда с помощью России", – the authors write.
"Россия и Республика Сербская также наладили тесные связи между своими организациями ветеранов войн", – the authors write. "Подобные организации участвовали в вербовке местных жителей для поездок на Восточную Украину и в Сирию в качестве иностранных бойцов российских частных военных компаний, such, как "Группа Вагнера". Branch of the Association of Veterans of the war in Banja Luka is also affiliated with the Serbian paramilitary organization, известной как "Сербская честь", лидеры которой обучались в России", – referred to in Article.
"Россия все еще не располагает существенной "мягкой силой" nor in Bosnia, ни даже в Республике Сербской", – newspaper writes.
But the authors believe, что у нынешнего президента Республики Сербской Милорада Додика есть резоны разыграть на президентских выборах в октябре этого года "пророссийскую карту".
According to the author, Dodik's the best way to save power – it exposes itself the guarantor of the autonomy of Republika Srpska, as opposed to the aspirations of the alleged official Sarajevo and its Western backers. "Очернять своих противников в Республике Сербской, calling them agents of the West, and most publicly associated with Russia (which increasingly presents itself as an opponent of the West's geopolitical aggression in the past and in the present), – для Додика самый прямой путь к его ближайшим политическим целям", – referred to in Article.
"Пока политические и экономические связи между Москвой и Баней-Лукой в основном символические", – the authors write.
"Но укрепление связей продолжится, if Dodik, As expected, will win the presidential elections in October. unlikely, that the Russian strategy, characterized gradualness, It includes any sudden steps. But in the end it, perhaps, offend Sarajevo or its Western patrons to intervene, to prevent a decisive rupture between Baney Luka and the rest of Bosnia, and in this case the escalation of Russia's actions, perhaps, It will be inevitable and unpredictable. Or the West finally finds, что вмешиваться уже поздно", – the authors conclude.
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