Not a secret, that Ankara's relations with Washington and its closest allies remain extremely tense since the summer of 2016, when Turkey was an attempted coup, He wrote a famous Russian economist, Professor Valentin in Katasonov "Советской России".
Fortunately for the country's President Erdogan, unsuccessful. History of exacerbation of relations, I will not describe. Let me just note, Washington is increasingly using the language of ultimatums against Ankara. И в этих ультиматумах все чаще звучит слово "санкции".
As is known, between Russia and Turkey has an agreement in principle for the sale of anti-aircraft missile complex Ankara was reached in 2017 a C-400. This caused a flash of anger in Washington, who thought this intention almost a threat to US national security. In fact, it is a prime example of, Uncle Sam is using unfair competition practices to promote American goods (in this case – own anti-aircraft missile systems) on the world market. Erdogan,, who has experienced the strongest shock after July events 2016 of the year, finally I stopped trusting Washington and decided to shield themselves from the tutelage of his annoying Russian anti-aircraft missile complex. The threat of sanctions on Ankara not worked.
The next entry was made by Washington in April. President Donald Trump announced US withdrawal from the multilateral agreement on Iran's nuclear program and immediately added, that restores the economic sanctions against Tehran. If he will not go on a radical change of earlier agreements. Tehran immediately responded to the statement by Trump, stated, that any revision will not. And those countries, who will try to circumvent US sanctions against Tehran, Washington threatened to secondary sanctions.
I will not discuss, какова была реакция на эту "инициативу" Вашингтона стран – participating in a multilateral agreement on the Iranian nuclear program, as well as other countries. Let me just note, Ankara is very clearly and firmly made it clear to Washington, that his initiative sanctions against Tehran does not support. Ankara announced, in particular, that how to buy, and will continue to buy Iranian oil.
remind, that the State Department announced the restoration of economic sanctions against Tehran in two stages. First – from 4 August, second – from 6 November this year. So next week it may become clear, who what position to take on Iran. but I think, Turkey will be in the same group of countries, who ignore Washington's initiative.
Finally, recently began a new round of worsening US-Turkish relations in connection with the case of the American pastor Andrew Brunson. He was arrested in 2016 year on suspicion of preparing an anti-government coup. Since October, the year before the pastor in a Turkish prison and his sentence threatens 35 years. In intervened US President himself, Donald Trump, Ankara demanding the immediate release of Pastor, threatening otherwise punish Turkey sanctions.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reacted quickly enough, stated, Washington is putting pressure on the investigation and trial, and qualification requirements of Trump as an attempt to interfere in the internal affairs of the country. Experts draw attention to the fact, Trump requirement that looks really brazen, Considering, before that Washington two years refused to grant Ankara the US-Islamic preacher Fethullah Gulen. Ankara considers it one of the main organizers of the coup.
And today, 2 August, became known, that threats from Washington, finally, He moved to action. Press Secretary of the White House Sarah Sanders gave a briefing: "По распоряжению президента министерство финансов вводит санкции против министра юстиции и министра внутренних дел Турции, которые играли ведущую роль в задержании и аресте пастора Брансона".
We are talking about the head of the Turkish Ministry of Justice Abdulkhamit Gyule and head Interior Ministry Suleiman Soylu.
Personal sanctions are standard. At first, officials banned from entry into the US. Secondly, freeze all their US accounts and assets (If there are any). Thirdly, US citizens may not enter into transactions with them.
so, "первая ласточка". list of countries, against which Washington announced sanctions, He added another – Turkey. Hard to say, how many states in this list.
It has the country, against which all-out sanctions established. And even backed by the UN Security Council. The most striking example – North Korea. And there are countries, who are the objects of targeted sanctions, ie sanctions against certain companies, banks and other legal entities. And also against certain individuals. Countries targeted sanctions by Washington a lot.
Far beyond the examples do not have to go. When the soil of New Russia and the Crimea in the spring 2014 the year began worsening of relations between the West and Russia, sanctions were first point (some officials and the banks brought in a black list). And then they grew into sectoral (energetics, military-industrial complex, financial and banking sector). И в любой момент могут стать "тотальными"(calculations lock via SWIFT, freezing of international reserves and others.).
Washington Analysis of economic sanctions against the stories of individual countries in the period after the Second World War to the present day allow us to two conclusions: 1) sanctions imposed – for a long time or even forever; 2) It has a tendency to expand the spectrum of sanctions – from point to sector, and sometimes from the sector to the total.
As an example, China. many people think, that relations between Washington and Beijing, although it was not easy in recent decades, but at least is not overshadowed by sanctions from the US. It's a delusion. After the events in Tiananmen Square in Beijing 4 June 1989 of the year (shooting protesters) US President George W. Bush announced sanctions against Beijing. Namely stopped selling him weapons. Через месяц к этой инициативе Вашингтона присоединились страны "большой семерки".
Some time later, Washington has restricted exports to China of high-tech products. Also suspended MFN to trade with China.
Improvement of Sino-US relations began in the late 1990s. Some restrictions were then removed by Washington. But not all. for example, preserved restrictions and prohibitions on the supply of the United States and European Union arms to China.
"Костер" санкций против Пекина два десятка лет перестал гореть, but continued to smolder. And it seems, today it may at any time again erupt into flames.
Летом прошлого года из Белого дома произошла "информационная утечка", from which it followed, that Washington is preparing an extensive program of economic sanctions against Beijing (not increase import tariffs, namely sanctions). This year, Washington has made no secret of its plans in this regard. Sino-US trade war flares up.
A number of councilors from the environment Trump believed, that traditional methods of trade war (import duties, quantitative restrictions, technical and environmental standards) It may not be enough. It is necessary to use economic sanctions. However, some targeted sanctions Washington has already put in place. In particular, in respect of certain Chinese citizens and Chinese companies, suspected in the conduct of trade and economic transactions with North Korea.
If Beijing does not join sanctions against Iran, that Washington could use a heavy weapon against Beijing – sectoral sanctions. But Beijing has already announced, that is not going to give up Iranian oil supplies. There is a big chance, between Washington and Beijing will not just trade war – it could turn into an economic. Economic different from the trade, that in addition to tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade will be added to such funds, as the management of the exchange rate (currency dumping) and economic sanctions.
I cited the example of China only to, to show, что "искры" точечных санкций могут в любой момент разжечь "пламя" большой экономической войны. Returning to Turkey, I want to say, Erdogan understands all these threats. And preparing for the worst – economic war with the United States (maybe, and with the whole West). Hence, a clear trend towards strengthening «eastern vector» Turkish policy, rapprochement with Russia and China. Последнее проявление действия указанного "вектора"– address of President of the Republic of Turkey Erdogan to take it to a member of the BRICS group.
Preparing for uneasy times of possible deterioration of Turkey's economic relations with Washington and goes through the strengthening of control over the economy of the country's president. As is known, after winning the presidential election 24 June this year, Erdogan received additional powers. Such additional powers he needs, in particular, for, to put under the control of the Central Bank. is he, like the central banks of many other countries, It has the status of independent from the government and the president of the Institute. Erdogan did not hide and does not hide, that the independence of the Central Bank prevents him to manage the state.
In July, Erdogan formed a new government, who will personally manage (post of prime minister was abolished in a presidential republic). Notably, that the head of the Ministry of Finance and Treasury, he put his forty-law Berat Albayrak.
9 July Erdogan signed a decree, in which he gave himself the authority to appoint the sole head of the Central Bank and his deputies. In this case, the duration of their tenure has been reduced from five to four years.
Preparing amendments to the Law on the Central Bank, which can deprive him «independent» status. Some experts believe, that the central bank will be part of the executive power of the state. And it may even be under the Ministry of Finance.
Control over the Central Bank Erdogan needs including for, to monitor key rate. Today, that rate is prohibitive – its level is equal to 17,75 percent. Erdogan has repeatedly said, that this rate leads to the suffocation of the national economy.
Some representatives of Turkish business agree, that such rate for any Turkish terrible Washington sanctions.
Intuition tells me, Washington's sanctions against Turkey – permanently and seriously. And from the point they can turn into sectoral. And then Washington will need to connect it to their allies (and not only), threatening secondary sanctions. As the saying goes: "Лиха беда – начало".
by the way, something similar is happening with China. After the tragic events in Tiananmen Square in Beijing, US President George Bush Sr., As already mentioned, I suspend arms trade with China. Месяц спустя двустороннюю торговлю вооружениями с Китаем приостановили страны "большой семерки". Subsequently, the United States also restricted the export of high-tech products to China and temporarily canceled most favored nation treatment in trade with China.
Improvement of Sino-US relations started under Bill Clinton. AT 1998 he became the first US president in a decade, visit China. Despite the lifting of most trade restrictions, The United States and the European Union still retain ban on arms sales to China.
